On behalf of Eversource Electric in Connecticut, Synapse developed an active demand reduction (ADR) benefit-cost (BC) screening model. Additionally, Synapse investigated storage benefits beyond those captured in the 2018 Avoided Energy Supply Costs study to be used either as quantitative inputs to the BC screening model or as qualitative information that will support the development of storage programs. By drawing upon literature reviews and common industry assumptions, Synapse produced storage non-energy benefits that could be input into the ADR BC model.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) retained Synapse to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) standards and zero emission vehicle (ZEV) policies in the state of Illinois. We assessed the likely employment and GDP impacts in Illinois for three policy scenarios: (1) adoption of low emission vehicle (LEV) tailpipe standards for criteria pollutants and GHGs, and ZEV regulations; (2) the LEV standards with increased ZEV penetration that achieves Governor Pritzker’s goal of 750,000 ZEVs by 2030; and (3) the LEV standards with further ZEV penetration that achieves 100 percent ZEV sales by 2035. Our analysis found that each of the three policy scenarios is likely to result in small but positive long-term macroeconomic impacts in Illinois and that employment and GDP benefits grow as each policy scenario becomes more aggressive in its assumed number of LEVs and ZEVs in Illinois.

The 100PercentCT Project developed by People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE) supports the transition to a clean energy economy in Connecticut. The project’s primary function is to conduct energy analyses to help inform individual towns and the State of Connecticut about opportunities to achieve 100 percent renewable energy for the buildings and transportation sectors. PACE developed the Town Energy Analysis model—an in-house, techno-economic tool—to inventory energy use and emissions in Connecticut towns and evaluate strategies to transition to renewable energy.

Synapse performed an in-depth review of PACE’s Town Energy Analysis model to identify opportunities to improve upon and expand the model. We evaluated the modeling methods, sectors, and scope included in the energy analysis, as well as the inputs and data sources used. We compared PACE’s model alongside 10 publicly available energy and climate modeling tools to identify opportunities to align the Town Energy Analysis model with current best practices in energy and greenhouse gas accounting and in identification of mitigation opportunities.

Synapse issued a report to PACE presenting our review of the Town Energy Analysis model. First, our report summarizes the energy and climate modeling tools used to establish current energy and climate planning best practices for analytical models. Next, we validate PACE’s model and identify specific changes to improve key data, inputs, methods, and assumptions used in the model. We conclude by identifying additional modeling approaches, clean energy strategies, market segments, and energy impacts for the possible inclusion within PACE’s Town Energy Analysis model.

The FERC approved the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) in 2017. Project owners Duke and Dominion filed a certificate for a construction extension with FERC on June 16, 2020. On behalf of the Southern Environmental Law Center, Synapse assessed the projected demand for new gas used for electric generation, estimating the “maximum demand for new gas” on a peak winter day in Dominion’s and Duke’s service territories. We examined public IRPs, new policies in Virginia and North Carolina that will lower CO2 emissions in the electric sector, and public documents related to the utilities’ internal emission reduction goals. We used that data to build spreadsheet models to assess maximum future gas demand on a winter peak day. Our analysis demonstrates that the need for new gas-fired generating resources originally anticipated by Duke and Dominion has not and will not materialize, thus negating the utilities’ claimed need for the ACP.

Synapse assisted the Sierra Club with evaluating Dominion’s 2020 Virginia IRP and modeling alternative scenarios demonstrating the cost effectiveness of clean energy generation and coal retirements. Synapse modeled an optimized Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) compliant scenario in EnCompass that resulted in lower emissions and lower costs than Dominion’s preferred plan. Rachel Wilson sponsored testimony describing how the Synapse scenario eliminated unnecessary gas capacity additions that Dominion fixed in its modeling, and showed that accelerating retirements of certain coal units by increasing solar generation capacity would save ratepayers billions of dollars. In addition, Synapse reviewed Dominion’s position regarding the PJM Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR) and the Fixed Resource Requirement (FRR) alternative to participating in the PJM capacity market under the MOPR. Jason Frost sponsored testimony describing how the MOPR will increase the costs of meeting state clean energy goals and require Dominion to retain unnecessary legacy fossil fuel powered generation by not counting renewable capacity. Mr. Frost’s testimony also discusses how the FRR presents a way to avoid the negative impacts of the MOPR, and can reduce consumer costs by avoiding the need to pay for legacy fossil fuel capacity that is no longer needed.

The Maryland Office of People’s Counsel retained Synapse to provide expert witness testimony on the benefit-cost analysis Baltimore Gas and Electric Company filed for its electric vehicle program portfolio as part of its Multi‐Year Plan. Synapse was also retained by OPC to respond to a benefit-cost analysis on the Potomac Electric Power Company's electric vehicle programs.

Synapse worked on behalf of Labor Network for Sustainability to analyze the economic benefits of improving energy, water, and transportation infrastructure in Massachusetts through increased state, municipal, and public investment. First, we identified spending gaps between existing investment plans for these three sectors and the level of investment needed to bring the sectors to a state of good repair. We used infrastructure needs reports, gap analysis studies, and state policy goals to identify the spending gaps. Next, we calculated the employment impacts of improving this infrastructure through increased investment between 2020 and 2030. We used IMPLAN, an industry-standard job impact model, to convert annual spending levels into annual job creation. We produced a final report summarizing the results for all three sectors as well as a selected set of city-specific case studies.

E4TheFuture retained Synapse to investigate whether New England is well-suited to handle the electrification transformation within the next decade. Electrification is a key strategy to reducing emissions and shifting away from fossil fuel reliance. Heat pumps and electric vehicles have gained traction as two technologies that will help that vision become a reality. Up until now, implementation has been fairly slow, but a combination of forward-looking policies and technology improvements may change that. Our question is – does increased electrification pose a threat to New England’s electric grid within the next decade? Synapse framed its' analysis in the context of ISO New England’s 2020 Capacity, Energy, Load, and Transmission forecast. Synapse found that policymakers can set an ambitious path to meet climate goals without significant disruption to the electric grid, by incorporating updated EV charging rates and controls. By continuing to offer efficiency programs, states can mitigate or even eliminate grid impacts due to electrification.

On behalf of the Sierra Club, Synapse is providing expert comments and analysis in the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission’s investigation into the Self Scheduling and Self-Commitment practices of the state’s Coal-fired power plants.

In 2020, Synapse evaluated the unit commitment and dispatch practices of two Minnesota Utility companies: Minnesota Power’s two Boswell units and Otter Tail Power’s Big Stone and Coyote units.

Based on data and information submitted as part of the Companies’ 2020 Annual Compliance Filings, we found that both Otter Tail Power and Minnesota Power uneconomically self-committed and often appeared to have uneconomically self-scheduled their coal units throughout the 2020 reporting periods. Both utilities incurred significant losses (relative to the market price of energy) based on their unit commitment and dispatch decision-making processes. Otter Tail Power’s losses resulting from its commitment and dispatch practices were driven in large part by two factors:

(1) the Company’s decision to enter into a long-term fuel contract for Coyote at the mine that serves the plant (co-located with the mine) that designates a significant portion of its fuel costs as fixed costs; and

(2) the joint ownership structure and dual market operation of both the Big Stone and Coyote plants.

In 2021, Synapse evaluated Otter Tail Power’s units, focusing on the long-term coal contract and joint ownership structure issues outlined above. We evaluated the contract buy-out cost for Otter Tail Power to exit the coal contract at Coyote, and whether ratepayers would be better served by exiting the contract or continuing to operate the unit at a loss. We also reviewed actions the Company has taken to enable economic commitment at Big Stone, its plans to do the same at Coyote, and the challenges posed to attempting to implement fully economic operations based on the joint market and joint ownership at both plants.

Synapse provided expert witness testimony and analysis to Sierra Club for Southwestern Public Service Company's (SPS) 2019 rate case in the states of New Mexico and Texas. The case focused on the retirement date for the Tolk Plant, which the Company was requesting be moved up based on a water shortage in the region that would limit the ability for SPS to continue economically operating the plant year-round through its current retirement date. Synapse’s testimony and analysis focused on both the recent historical and future projected economic performance of Tolk under the Company’s proposed seasonal operations plan for the plant moving forward. We also evaluated the Harrington Coal-fired Power Plant. We found that both plants are likely to lose money going forward relative to alternatives and the market, and therefore SPS should develop a plan to retire both plants. SPS has been required to update its analysis on the future operation of the Tolk Power Station.

Synapse was retained by the Sierra Club to evaluate the prudence of coal combustion residuals and effluent limitation guidelines retrofits at the Victor Daniel coal-fired power plant in Mississippi in light of ongoing and future costs and future environmental risk.

Synapse worked on behalf of Labor Network for Sustainability to analyze the economic benefits of improving energy, water, and transportation infrastructure in Massachusetts through increased state, municipal, and public investment. First, we identified spending gaps between existing investment plans for these three sectors and the level of investment needed to bring the sectors to a state of good repair. We used infrastructure needs reports, gap analysis studies, and state policy goals to identify the spending gaps. Next, we calculated the employment impacts of improving this infrastructure through increased investment between 2020 and 2030. We used IMPLAN, an industry-standard job impact model, to convert annual spending levels into annual job creation. We produced a final report summarizing the results for all three sectors as well as a selected set of city-specific case studies.

Burlington, Vermont’s municipal electric utility, Burlington Electric Department (BED) contracted Synapse and Resource Systems Group (RSG) to develop a roadmap on how the city could best achieve its Net Zero Energy by 2030 goal. The City’s goal is defined as reducing and eventually eliminating fossil fuel use from its heating and ground transportation sectors. 

This roadmap is a strategic analysis of the major steps or milestones needed to reach the City's Net Zero by 2030 goal with supporting data and recommendations for next steps. In order to develop this roadmap, the Synapse/RSG team:

•   developed a 2018 baseline of energy use across all sectors
•   projected a business-as-usual trajectory through 2030
•   analyzed four pathways to net-zero energy by 2030, including the magnitude and cost-effectiveness of each opportunity
•   detailed a host of policies and strategies with consideration for impact, cost-effectiveness and equity

The intended audience for this roadmap is implementers of climate action goals, strategies and policies nationwide: including community and state leaders, partner organizations, utilities, and community members. The approach and supporting strategies are applicable to many communities nationwide. The roadmap is publically available and can be viewed here.  

In early 2021, Synapse was contracted by BED to update GHG emissions and other decarbonization metrics for Burlington in order to compare actual progress in 2019 and 2020 to the projections modeled in the Net Zero Energy Roadmap. This analysis showed that Burlington's emissions have fallen 15 percent since 2018, in line with a Net Zero trajectory. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed significantly to emissions reductions in 2020, particularly by reducing the number of miles driven in private vehicles. Burlington now has the opportunity to double down on decarbonization measures, including the electrification of transportation and heating, to mitigate any post-pandemic emissions rebound.

Washington D.C. is experiencing rapid development of new residential and office buildings in and around the Mt. Vernon Triangle area. In response, the local utility has proposed building a new substation to serve the expected load growth at a cost of approximately $150 million. The utility reviewed and incorporated some energy efficiency and other distributed energy resources (DER) in its load forecast, but concluded that such non-wires solutions (NWAs) do not provide enough capacity to resolve the expected distribution constraints. However, Synapse Energy Economics’ analysis revealed that the utility’s plan did not adequately account for the potential impacts of cost-effective targeted DER solutions or future building codes.

Synapse conducted a comprehensive assessment of the utility’s load forecast and the feasibility of NWAs. We quantified cost-effective NWAs sufficient for deferring the need for the substation. This presentation highlights the key issues, assumptions, methodologies, and results from our analysis. Further, we present how our findings can be applied to other regions facing similar situations. Specifically, this presentation covers: (a) peak load forecasting methodologies; (b) peak load assumptions for existing buildings and new construction; (c) solar PV projections; and (d) achievable energy efficiency and demand response potential for the Mt. Vernon area. Synapse used building load data, existing end-use level potential studies, and program performance from leading programs to estimate energy efficiency and demand response potential. The presenter will also highlight studies and leading programs Synapse referenced to develop key assumptions on energy savings, costs, and participation rates.