The FERC approved the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) in 2017. Project owners Duke and Dominion filed a certificate for a construction extension with FERC on June 16, 2020. On behalf of the Southern Environmental Law Center, Synapse assessed the projected demand for new gas used for electric generation, estimating the “maximum demand for new gas” on a peak winter day in Dominion’s and Duke’s service territories. We examined public IRPs, new policies in Virginia and North Carolina that will lower CO2 emissions in the electric sector, and public documents related to the utilities’ internal emission reduction goals. We used that data to build spreadsheet models to assess maximum future gas demand on a winter peak day. Our analysis demonstrates that the need for new gas-fired generating resources originally anticipated by Duke and Dominion has not and will not materialize, thus negating the utilities’ claimed need for the ACP.
Synapse assisted the Sierra Club with evaluating Dominion’s 2020 Virginia IRP and modeling alternative scenarios demonstrating the cost effectiveness of clean energy generation and coal retirements. Synapse modeled an optimized Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) compliant scenario in EnCompass that resulted in lower emissions and lower costs than Dominion’s preferred plan. Rachel Wilson sponsored testimony describing how the Synapse scenario eliminated unnecessary gas capacity additions that Dominion fixed in its modeling, and showed that accelerating retirements of certain coal units by increasing solar generation capacity would save ratepayers billions of dollars. In addition, Synapse reviewed Dominion’s position regarding the PJM Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR) and the Fixed Resource Requirement (FRR) alternative to participating in the PJM capacity market under the MOPR. Jason Frost sponsored testimony describing how the MOPR will increase the costs of meeting state clean energy goals and require Dominion to retain unnecessary legacy fossil fuel powered generation by not counting renewable capacity. Mr. Frost’s testimony also discusses how the FRR presents a way to avoid the negative impacts of the MOPR, and can reduce consumer costs by avoiding the need to pay for legacy fossil fuel capacity that is no longer needed.
Direct Testimony of Jason Frost in Case No. PUR-2020-00035
Electricity generation from Duke Energy, Dominion Energy, and Southern Company utilities collectively represent 12.4 percent of U.S. power sector CO2 emissions – equivalent to 4.2 percent of total U.S. CO2 emissions. While all three utilities have announced plans to decarbonize their electricity generation by 2050 in order to meet climate targets, a deeper look into their generation portfolios and plans reveals that all three utilities are on track to fall short of their emissions reduction commitments.
On behalf of the Climate Majority Project, Synapse investigated the companies’ current plans for fleet decarbonization. We made the following recommendations to help ensure a path to reach climate targets by 2050: (1) develop science-based CO2 trajectories upon which all future plans and actions should be rooted; (2) conduct robust retirement and replacement analysis to determine the least cost path to retire each company’s existing fossil fleet and replace it with alternative zero-carbon portfolios; (3) invest in renewables and demand-side resources to meet future resource needs; (4) invest in grid-modernization solutions in tandem with retirement of existing resources and development of renewables; and finally (5) evaluate and plan for changing system needs, including load growth driven by electrification instead of traditional steady demand.
Synapse worked on behalf of Labor Network for Sustainability to analyze the economic benefits of improving energy, water, and transportation infrastructure in Massachusetts through increased state, municipal, and public investment. First, we identified spending gaps between existing investment plans for these three sectors and the level of investment needed to bring the sectors to a state of good repair. We used infrastructure needs reports, gap analysis studies, and state policy goals to identify the spending gaps. Next, we calculated the employment impacts of improving this infrastructure through increased investment between 2020 and 2030. We used IMPLAN, an industry-standard job impact model, to convert annual spending levels into annual job creation. We produced a final report summarizing the results for all three sectors as well as a selected set of city-specific case studies.
On behalf of the Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources (OER), Synapse conducted a geospatial analysis to determine an estimate of the likely solar potential available within a number of solar siting categories. Synapse examined and quantified solar potential for the following six siting categories:
-Rooftop solar (including rooftops of residential single family, residential multifamily, commercial, industrial, municipal, and other building types)
-Ground-mounted solar in the following four categories: (1) Landfills, (2) gravel pits, (3) brownfields, and (4) commercial and industrial developed and undeveloped lots
-Parking lot / carport solar
We used geospatial analysis to examine the following types of potentials for each category of solar:
-Total Potential, an estimate of the solar potential for the entire area under consideration, with no exceptions.
-Technical Potential, an estimate of the potential excluding areas not suitable for solar development. These challenges may reduce technical potential, relative to total potential.
For residential rooftop solar, we also analyzed:
-Economic Potential, an estimate of the solar potential that is likely to be installed, given the current cost of the technology, the current financial incentives available, and the household economics specific to a municipality. This potential category was analyzed for residential rooftop solar only.
In addition, for each category of solar, we compiled estimates of these MW potentials translated into gigawatt-hour (GWh) generation potential, solar costs (based on costs available as of late 2019 / early 2020), avoided greenhouse gas emissions, and possible impacts on distribution system hosting capacity.
On August 18th, 2020, Synapse staff presented the results of this analysis in an online webinar presentation, which can be found here. A list of webinar attendees can be found here.
Solar Siting Opportunities for Rhode Island: Slide Deck
Synapse provided expert witness testimony and analysis to Sierra Club for Southwestern Public Service Company's (SPS) 2019 rate case in the states of New Mexico and Texas. The case focused on the retirement date for the Tolk Plant, which the Company was requesting be moved up based on a water shortage in the region that would limit the ability for SPS to continue economically operating the plant year-round through its current retirement date. Synapse’s testimony and analysis focused on both the recent historical and future projected economic performance of Tolk under the Company’s proposed seasonal operations plan for the plant moving forward. We also evaluated the Harrington Coal-fired Power Plant. We found that both plants are likely to lose money going forward relative to alternatives and the market, and therefore SPS should develop a plan to retire both plants. SPS has been required to update its analysis on the future operation of the Tolk Power Station.
Testimony of Devi Glick in Case No. 19-00170-UT
Direct Testimony of Devi Glick in PUC Docket No. 49831
On behalf of the North Carolina Sustainable Business Association, Synapse modeled two scenarios: a "Duke IRP" scenario, which included the Company's planned retirements and additions of more than 9 GW of new gas capacity, and a "Clean Energy" scenario, which included increased penetrations of solar and battery storage technologies. We compared these two scenarios based on energy, capacity, emissions, and impacts to health, rates/bills, GDP, and jobs in North Carolina. Synapse also examined the same impacts for ratepayers in South Carolina on behalf of the South Carolina Solar Business Alliance. The Synapse analyses found that renewable and battery resource options are comparably cost-effective to new natural gas for Carolina ratepayers, and offer other benefits as well.
Modeling Clean Energy for South Carolina: An Alternative to Duke's Integrated Resource Plan
The late January 2019 Polar Vortex weather event brought extreme temperatures to the upper Midwest through New England – the same stretch of the country where the most fossil fuels are used to heat buildings. As it becomes clear that a decarbonized electric grid is possible, “#ElectrifyEverything” has become a rallying cry for the path to transportation and building decarbonization. In this webinar, we explore the hypothetical: What if all the buildings from the Dakotas, to the Ohio River Valley, through Maine were heated with cold climate heat pumps instead? We estimate the impact on hourly peak electric loads, and we use this to tee up and discuss questions about what a cost-effective plan to decarbonize these buildings would need to address.
Synapse worked on behalf of Labor Network for Sustainability to analyze the economic benefits of improving energy, water, and transportation infrastructure in Massachusetts through increased state, municipal, and public investment. First, we identified spending gaps between existing investment plans for these three sectors and the level of investment needed to bring the sectors to a state of good repair. We used infrastructure needs reports, gap analysis studies, and state policy goals to identify the spending gaps. Next, we calculated the employment impacts of improving this infrastructure through increased investment between 2020 and 2030. We used IMPLAN, an industry-standard job impact model, to convert annual spending levels into annual job creation. We produced a final report summarizing the results for all three sectors as well as a selected set of city-specific case studies.
On behalf of Sierra Club, Synapse developed a least-cost resource portfolio to inform future plans for the Santee Cooper public utility in South Carolina. The resulting report explores a variety of energy mixes for the state-owned utility, and demonstrates that Santee Cooper’s continued reliance on coal or building large fracked-gas plants would be the costliest options. The least-cost option entails a combination of renewable energy resources and energy efficiency.
Burlington, Vermont’s municipal electric utility, Burlington Electric Department (BED) contracted with Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) and Resource Systems Group (RSG) to develop a roadmap to provide clarity and insight into how the City could best achieve its Net Zero Energy by 2030 goal. The City’s Net Zero Energy goal is defined as reducing and eventually eliminating fossil fuel use from the heating and ground transportation sectors. Burlington currently sources 100 percent of the City’s electricity needs from renewables. Burlington’s Net Zero Energy goal is the most ambitious climate goal established by any community in the United States to date for both its rapidity and comprehensiveness.
This roadmap is a strategic analysis of the major steps or milestones needed to reach the goal with supporting data and recommended next steps for achieving the goal. The Synapse/RSG team:
- developed a 2018 baseline of energy use across all sectors;
- projected a business-as-usual trajectory through 2030;
- analyzed four pathways to net zero energy by 2030, including the magnitude and cost- effectiveness of each opportunity; and,
- detailed a host of policies and strategies with consideration for impact, cost-effectiveness and equity.
The intended audience for this roadmap is implementers of climate action goals, strategies and policies nationwide: including community and state leaders, partner organizations, utilities, and community members. The approach and supporting strategies are applicable to many communities nationwide. Policymakers, implementers, and citizens in states, regions, cities, and towns can read the roadmap here.
On behalf of the Environmental Defense Fund, Synapse conducted a benefit-cost analysis of a regulation to curb methane emissions from the oil and gas industry in New Mexico. The analysis evaluated the Gold Standard set of emissions regulations, comparing implementation costs to several types of benefits to the state of New Mexico: sales from newly captured gas, avoided costs related to human health impacts, and avoided nonattainment costs of reduced GHG emissions. Additionally, the report evaluated the global societal benefit of reducing methane emissions into the atmosphere.
Washington D.C. is experiencing rapid development of new residential and office buildings in and around the Mt. Vernon Triangle area. In response, the local utility has proposed building a new substation to serve the expected load growth at a cost of approximately $150 million. The utility reviewed and incorporated some energy efficiency and other distributed energy resources (DER) in its load forecast, but concluded that such non-wires solutions (NWAs) do not provide enough capacity to resolve the expected distribution constraints. However, Synapse Energy Economics’ analysis revealed that the utility’s plan did not adequately account for the potential impacts of cost-effective targeted DER solutions or future building codes.
Synapse conducted a comprehensive assessment of the utility’s load forecast and the feasibility of NWAs. We quantified cost-effective NWAs sufficient for deferring the need for the substation. This presentation highlights the key issues, assumptions, methodologies, and results from our analysis. Further, we present how our findings can be applied to other regions facing similar situations. Specifically, this presentation covers: (a) peak load forecasting methodologies; (b) peak load assumptions for existing buildings and new construction; (c) solar PV projections; and (d) achievable energy efficiency and demand response potential for the Mt. Vernon area. Synapse used building load data, existing end-use level potential studies, and program performance from leading programs to estimate energy efficiency and demand response potential. The presenter will also highlight studies and leading programs Synapse referenced to develop key assumptions on energy savings, costs, and participation rates.
Synapse provided analysis and expert testimony on behalf of Southern Alliance for Clean Energy for North Carolina's 2018 Avoided Cost Docket, no. E-100, Sub 158. Witness Devi Glick submitted responsive testimony on the topic of Battery Storage and PURPA Avoided Cost Rates.
On behalf of the Sierra Club, Synapse modeled the electric system in New Mexico using the EnCompass model in both capacity expansion and production cost modes. Synapse comprehensively modeled zero-emission alternatives to a new utility-proposed gas-fired generation option intended to replace the retiring San Juan Generating Station units in New Mexico in 2023. The modeling accounts for the interconnectedness of the electric power grid in the Desert Southwest region, including detailed representation of generation units in Arizona and New Mexico (and portions of Texas and California), and aggregated treatment for resources in the rest of the West.
Synapse finds that a combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar PV, utility-scale battery storage, incremental wind resource procurements, and increased deployment of demand response will provide Public Service of New Mexico with a less-expensive, and lower-emitting alternative than its proposed gas-fired generation, while meeting all reliability requirements. Utility-scale battery storage in particular is a key part of the resource portfolio. Storage resources can be deployed incrementally to provide a firm capacity resource that can be directly controlled by the utility, charged by any grid resources, and provide valuable regulation up and down and ancillary services.
Synapse provided expert witness testimony and analysis to Sierra Club for Southwestern Public Service Company's (SPS) 2019 rate case in the states of New Mexico and Texas. The case focused on the retirement date for the Tolk Plant, which the Company was requesting be moved up based on a water shortage in the region that would limit the ability for SPS to continue economically operating the plant year-round through its current retirement date. Synapse’s testimony and analysis focused on both the recent historical and future projected economic performance of Tolk under the Company’s proposed seasonal operations plan for the plant moving forward. We also evaluated the Harrington Coal-fired Power Plant. We found that both plants are likely to lose money going forward relative to alternatives and the market, and therefore SPS should develop a plan to retire both plants. SPS has been required to update its analysis on the future operation of the Tolk Power Station.
Testimony of Devi Glick in Case No. 19-00170-UT
Direct Testimony of Devi Glick in PUC Docket No. 49831
Synapse determined the avoided costs of compliance with the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act. This work was a supplement to our 2018 AESC study. Learn more about the AESC study here.
Massachusetts GWSA Appendices
In order to fulfill its ambitious greenhouse gas emission goals, California will need to decarbonize its buildings, which are responsible for 25 percent of the state's climate emissions. California's legislature recently passed a law requiring that the state have 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045.In October, Synapse released a report (prepared on behalf of NRDC) examining the technology available for clean and efficient electric heating, the customer benefits of decarbonizing buildings, the electric grid impacts of doing so, and policy recommendations for getting there. The report particularly illuminates the importance of electric rate design to the customer economics and grid impacts of building decarbonization. California has been leading on developing electric vehicle rate designs and now has the opportunity to develop rates that work for low-emission buildings as well.
On Thursday, November 15, 2018, Synapse hosted a Third Thursday webinar discussion of these issues with Asa S. Hopkins, PhD, lead author of Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings, and Synapse Principal Associate Melissa Whited.
The Los Angeles City Council has mandated that the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), the largest municipally-run utility in the United States, analyze powering 100 percent of demand with renewable energy. To date, LADWP's efforts have been insufficient, as the utility has only published an analysis of a slight increase over current renewable energy targets and is not planning to finalize their 100 percent renewable study until 2020 at the earliest.
Food & Water Watch engaged Synapse to analyze a potential pathway to 100 percent clean energy in Los Angeles by 2030. In our study, we found that it is possible for LADWP to exclusively use renewable resources to power its system in every hour of the year. What's more, we found that under one of the clean energy pathways analyzed, the transition to 100 percent renewable energy in every hour of the year can occur at no net cost to the system. The resulting report, Clean Energy for Los Angeles, provides a roadmap for how to achieve 100 percent renewables by integrating and harnessing renewable energy more efficiently and investing in additional efficiency, storage, and demand response.
Although the report only focuses on a single city, the results are important and applicable to many other parts of the country. Los Angeles's 4 million residents make the city larger than 22 entire states, while the annual energy served by LADWP is greater than sales in 13 individual states, indicating that if this transition is possible in Los Angeles, it is feasible in other parts of the country as well.
Synapse analyzed the macroeconomic impacts of federal fuel economy standards and state zero-emission vehicle standards on the U.S. economy. Our team compared the impacts of vehicle standards set for 2017-2025 to the impacts of keeping standards at 2016 levels. Our analysis indicated that federal and state vehicle standards will result in positive employment impacts and GDP growth in both the short term and long term. Synapse released Cleaner Cars and Job Creation, a report prepared for Union of Concerned Scientists, Natural Resources Defense Council, and American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, in March 2018.
In a follow-up report entitled Giving Back Half the Gains, we extended our Cleaner Cars Analysis to explore the macroeconomic impacts of the proposed rollback of the standards (henceforth called the flat-lined standards), relative to the same 2016-technology baseline. We then compared the employment and GDP impacts of the proposed flat-lined standards with the employment and GDP impacts of the existing clean vehicle standards. We found that the proposed flat-lined standards will generate 60,000 fewer job-years in 2025 and over 120,000 fewer job-years in 2035 than the existing clean vehicle standards. Furthermore, the proposed flat-lined standards will reduce GDP by $8 billion in both 2025 and 2035 when compared to the existing clean vehicle standards. We concluded that the proposed flat-lined standards are expected to reduce the positive impacts on the U.S. economy that would be generated under the existing clean vehicle standards compared to the 2016-technology baseline.
Giving Back Half the Gains
On behalf of the North Carolina Sustainable Business Association, Synapse modeled two scenarios: a "Duke IRP" scenario, which included the Company's planned retirements and additions of more than 9 GW of new gas capacity, and a "Clean Energy" scenario, which included increased penetrations of solar and battery storage technologies. We compared these two scenarios based on energy, capacity, emissions, and impacts to health, rates/bills, GDP, and jobs in North Carolina. Synapse also examined the same impacts for ratepayers in South Carolina on behalf of the South Carolina Solar Business Alliance. The Synapse analyses found that renewable and battery resource options are comparably cost-effective to new natural gas for Carolina ratepayers, and offer other benefits as well.
Modeling Clean Energy for South Carolina: An Alternative to Duke's Integrated Resource Plan
Synapse has a new EV tool! Our new EV-REDI (Electric Vehicle Regional Emissions and Demand Impacts) tool models multiple impacts of transportation electrification for specific states. With electric vehicles on the rise, there will be enormous opportunities for making transportation more sustainable and modernizing the electric grid. But to realize this potential, it will be necessary to plan ahead. More and more, states, cities, utilities, and regional authorities are seriously considering the impacts of futures in which electric vehicles play an increasingly important role in the transportation sector. EV-REDI can help meet the need to quantify the impacts of increased EV penetration on electricity sales, greenhouse gas emissions, and avoided gasoline consumption. Join us on October 18th to learn more about EV-REDI!
Webinar recorded on October 18, 2018. Watch it here!
Presenter: Pat Knight | Moderator: Bruce Biewald
Environmental Entrepreneurs retained Synapse to perform an analysis of the economic impacts of clean vehicle standards in Colorado. We assessed the likely employment and gross domestic product impacts from Colorado enacting aggressive greenhouse gas emission standards and pursuing increased electric vehicle penetration. Our summary report concluded that the pursuit of a lower-emitting vehicle fleet is likely to result in small but positive long-term macroeconomic impacts in Colorado.
Synapse provided technical support and analysis to the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources for the development of a Comprehensive Energy Plan for the Commonwealth. The Plan is part of a broader strategy to coordinate and make consistent new and existing efforts to mitigate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build climate change resilience. Synapse analyzed the Commonwealth’s energy use and supply in a regional context from now until 2030 under a variety of scenarios to determine optimal policies to achieve economic competitiveness and emission goals and maintain reliability.
The final version of the Massachusetts Comprehensive Energy Plan is available at https://www.mass.gov/files/documents/2019/01/10/CEP%20Report-%20Final%2001102019.pdf.
Burlington, Vermont’s municipal electric utility, Burlington Electric Department (BED) contracted with Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) and Resource Systems Group (RSG) to develop a roadmap to provide clarity and insight into how the City could best achieve its Net Zero Energy by 2030 goal. The City’s Net Zero Energy goal is defined as reducing and eventually eliminating fossil fuel use from the heating and ground transportation sectors. Burlington currently sources 100 percent of the City’s electricity needs from renewables. Burlington’s Net Zero Energy goal is the most ambitious climate goal established by any community in the United States to date for both its rapidity and comprehensiveness.
This roadmap is a strategic analysis of the major steps or milestones needed to reach the goal with supporting data and recommended next steps for achieving the goal. The Synapse/RSG team:
- developed a 2018 baseline of energy use across all sectors;
- projected a business-as-usual trajectory through 2030;
- analyzed four pathways to net zero energy by 2030, including the magnitude and cost- effectiveness of each opportunity; and,
- detailed a host of policies and strategies with consideration for impact, cost-effectiveness and equity.
The intended audience for this roadmap is implementers of climate action goals, strategies and policies nationwide: including community and state leaders, partner organizations, utilities, and community members. The approach and supporting strategies are applicable to many communities nationwide. Policymakers, implementers, and citizens in states, regions, cities, and towns can read the roadmap here.
With support from Environmental Defense Fund, Synapse convened a stakeholder advisory council and provided analysis to produce a vision of Ohio’s clean energy economic opportunities. The group—comprised of business leaders, manufacturers, academics, labor representatives, non-profits, and others—produced a shared vision report of how Ohio could create new jobs and economic growth by modernizing its energy economy. Essentially a business case for clean energy growth and innovation, the vision identifies multi-billion dollar opportunities related to attracting leading corporations, transforming transportation, building and deploying clean electricity and energy efficiency, and modernizing the grid, to demonstrate why Ohio is well-positioned to lead if it takes action. The vision also highlights the risks of failing to create conditions that allow Ohio businesses to compete on the national and global levels. After launching the shared vision on May 29, 2018, Synapse and the advisory group will use the report to engage additional Ohio stakeholders. Their combined input will add to a detailed roadmap of specific actions Ohio actors can take to achieve the vision. For more information, see www.poweringohio.org.
Sierra Club retained Synapse to assess the 2017 Integrated Resource Pan (IRP) filed by Puget Sound Energy (PSE). Synapse's review found that the PSE IRP included a reasonable near-term resource plan but contained proposed actions that could lead to an unjustified deviation from that resource plan. In addition, Synapse identified a series of unjustified assumptions and conclusions regarding renewable resource costs and availability and coal plant retirement dates that resulted in a biased long-term resource plan. In comments submitted to the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, Synapse recommended that the Commission ensure full oversight of PSE's upcoming resource procurement processes and require PSE to use updated assumptions and enable full stakeholder participation in future IRP cycles.
Synapse provided analysis and expert testimony on behalf of Southern Alliance for Clean Energy for North Carolina's 2018 Avoided Cost Docket, no. E-100, Sub 158. Witness Devi Glick submitted responsive testimony on the topic of Battery Storage and PURPA Avoided Cost Rates.
Join us as we trace the evolution of a new reliability standard that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) appears to be endorsing as a part of its docket on resiliency. The FERC rejected the U.S. Department of Energy's recent request for an immediate FERC rule-making to support “fuel-secure resources.” Instead, the FERC initiated an administrative docket (AD 18-7) to solicit comments from RTOS and stakeholders on how to meet new reliability concerns related to fuel storage. Two recent FERC Orders suggest that the FERC is not waiting for a resolution of the AD 18-7 process before directing RTOs to modify their tariffs to “support” necessary resources whether through capacity market enhancements or through cost-of-service agreements. In this webinar, recorded live on July 19th, 2018, Synapse's Paul Peterson provides a play-by-play analysis of these ongoing actions and developments related to reliability.
We then take a deep dive into distribution level reliability, using New Jersey as a case study. Max Chang leads a discussion on how utilities and the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities have invested in distribution infrasture to withstand future large-scale storms in the aftermath of major storm events in 2011 and 2012: Hurricane Irene, the October '11 snowstorm, and Superstorm Sandy.
Moderated by Jenn Kallay
We've spent early 2018 absorbed in data recently released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). We've been analyzing numbers, creating snappy data visuals, and preparing the Synapse Electricity Snapshot 2018 (available here). In this webinar from March 16, 2018, we discuss the historical trends we found. We also look to the future by reviewing EIA's 2018 Annual Energy Outlook projections for energy use from the electric power, residential, commercial, and transportation sectors through 2050.
In typical Synapse style, we walk through the data using some of our favorite interesting graphs and charts.
Featuring: Pat Knight, Tommy Vitolo PhD | Moderator: Bruce Biewald
