Synapse worked with Meister Consulting Group to analyze the Clean Energy Plan of Lincoln Electric System (LES), the customer-owner municipal utility for the city of Lincoln, Nebraska, on behalf of Sierra Club. Historically, LES has generated about 85 percent of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. Synapse and Meister used LES’s Clean Energy Plan to develop a set of scenarios examining the bulk power costs (including costs of complying with upcoming environmental regulations) and monthly bill impacts of LES maintaining its coal-focused status quo. The project team also examined alternatives in which LES pursues expanded renewable energy PPAs. 

Sierra Club retained Synapse to review Oklahoma Gas & Electric’s application before the Oklahoma Corporation Commission seeking authorization of a plan to comply with the Clean Air Act and to modernize its Mustang plant, and to recover costs for both projects. The filing requested approval of retrofits on Sooner units 1 & 2, conversion of Muskogee units 4 & 5 to natural gas, and construction of new natural gas combustion turbines to replace steam units at Mustang.

Synapse expert witnesses Tyler Comings, Jeremy Fisher, Rachel Wilson submitted direct testimony in this proceeding. Mr. Comings’ testimony focused on the reasonableness of the assumptions used in the Company’s supporting analysis, and how those assumptions impact the net present value of the proposed action. Dr. Fisher discussed the Company’s planning methodology and compared it with best practices in resource planning. Ms. Wilson evaluated the PROMOD and PCI Gentrader modeling performed by the Company and presented the results of her own Gentrader modeling analysis.

The witnesses’ analyses showed that OG&E’s preferred option only advantaged ratepayers in fringe cases, and not at all under reasonable expectations about the future. In December 2015, the Commission denied the Company's application.

On behalf of a coalition of environmental non-governmental organizations, Synapse reviewed PacifiCorp’s use of the System Optimizer model in the development of its 2015 integrated resource plan. In addition to evaluating PacifiCorp’s inputs and configuration choices, Synapse conducted several independent sensitivity scenarios to demonstrate an approach to planning that is more flexible, more transparent, and better optimizes decisions in the face of planning constraints faced by PacifiCorp. Synapse assessed how economic unit retirements could be used to help PacifiCorp states reach Clean Power Plan compliance. Whereas PacifiCorp decided which power plants to force to retire in the model based on a separate analysis, Synapse allowed System Optimizer to determine which units to retire in order to find a least-cost plan. Synapse also tested the PacifiCorp system against likely regional haze compliance requirements and sensitivities to renewable cost assumptions.

Synapse, the Labor Network for Sustainability, and 350.org prepared a report that lays out a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050, and refutes claims that achieving these targets will threaten jobs and the U.S. economy. In fact, analysis suggests that the plan will save $78 billion in costs of electricity, heating, and transportation from now through 2050 and will create more than 500,000 jobs per year compared to business as usual. By expanding renewable energy and energy efficiency, phasing out all coal-fired power by 2050, and decreasing natural gas capacity, along with modest changes in other sectors, the United States could reach or surpass the 80 percent reduction target while creating new jobs and saving money.

The series of published reports can be found at http://climatejobs.labor4sustainability.org/.

Synapse conducted an economic analysis of a proposed 1,000 MW natural gas combined-cycle power plant. The results were presented in the testimony of Bruce Biewald before the Mississippi Public Service Commission in Docket No. 97-UA-496. Testimony filed in November 1997.

Synapse conducted a behavioral modeling analysis of electricity market power in New York City given transmission constraints.  Bruce Biewald testified on behalf of the City in ConEd’s restructuring docket.  Synapse reviewed the market power analysis conducted by Dr. Hieronymus for ConEd.  Testimony filed in April 1997.

Synapse and a team of subcontractors developed projections of electricity and natural gas costs that would be avoided due to reductions in electricity and natural gas use resulting from improvements in energy efficiency. The 2018 report provides projections of avoided costs of electricity and natural gas by year from 2018 through 2035 with extrapolated values for another 15 years. In addition to projecting the costs of energy and capacity avoided directly by program participants, the report provides estimates of the Demand Reduction Induced Price Effect (DRIPE) of efficiency programs on wholesale market prices for electric energy, electric capacity, and natural gas. The report also provides a projection of avoided costs of fuel oil and other fuels, non-embedded environmental costs associated with emissions of CO₂, avoided costs of transmission and distribution, and the value of reliability. The 2018 AESC study was sponsored by a group representing all of the major electric and gas utilities in New England as well as efficiency program administrators, energy offices, regulators, and advocates. Synapse conducted prior AESC studies in 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2013.

Visit our AESC 2018 Materials page to download the AESC 2018 report appendices, user interfaces, and a slide deck on the study findings.

Synapse has also conducted supplemental analysis on the avoided costs of compliance of the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act. Visit here for more details.

As new, more stringent federal environmental regulations come into effect, the fleet of U.S. coal-fired power plants is becoming increasingly less economic in comparison to the alternative of electricity market purchases. Numerous industry groups, environmental advocates, and government agencies have published estimates of the U.S. coal capacity at risk of retirement. However, all of these estimates have been conservative in that they have excluded the costs of installing and operating some of the controls expected to be required for compliance with environmental regulations, and/or they have assumed a long-run carbon-emission price of zero. This study explores a more comprehensive set of assumptions, using Synapse's Coal Asset Valuation Tool (CAVT). CAVT (now on version 6.0) is a spreadsheet-based database and model that forecasts the costs for individual coal units to comply with environmental regulations, and compares these forecasts to electricity market prices. It includes cost estimates for all expected environmental retrofits along with carbon prices.

Learn more about CAVT on our Tools page.

Synapse provided support to ACEEE in its development of a Mississippi energy efficiency potential study. Synapse provided analysis of wholesale electricity supply prices for the reference case, high-level estimates of avoided electric energy and capacity costs, and projections of electricity supply prices under a clean energy policy case. Project completed January 2014. Access the report here: http://www.aceee.org/research-report/e13m.

The Center for Rural Affairs required technical assistance regarding the future of the Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD)‐owned Sheldon Station generating plant, including research, analysis, and findings presented in a report. Synapse detailed Sheldon’s future capital and operating costs and generation benefits, presented a list of credible options for NPPD’s replacement of Sheldon, and documented these findings in a clear, concise manner.

Synapse researched Sheldon’s future costs (i.e., costs driven by environmental regulation, market forces, and daily operations), as well as estimated the benefits NPPD gained by the plant’s operation, including those related to NPPD’s energy, capacity, and reliability needs. Synapse then outlined Nebraska‐specific options for alternatives, including energy efficiency, wind or solar photovoltaic generation, natural gas generation, market purchases, and/or transmission upgrades.

In 2013, under contract with the EPA, Synapse developed AVERT (the Avoided Emissions and Generation Tool). AVERT is an intermediate-complexity, publicly accessible tool for estimating the potential of energy efficiency and renewable energy programs to displace sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide emissions within the continental United States. AVERT is a flexible modeling framework with a simple user interface designed specifically to meet the needs of air quality managers and other stakeholders. It allows non-expert users to easily, quickly, and flexibly evaluate individual unit emissions displaced by energy efficiency and renewable energy programs with a reasonable degree of accuracy, and yet requires little or no electricity system expertise and no specialized resources to operate. After rigorous peer review and beta testing, AVERT was released to the public in February 2014.

Synapse assessed the economic and emissions impacts of retiring TVA's Shawnee Station as part of the Kentucky Environmental Foundation's Health Impact Assessment of the plant. 

Synapse provided in-depth comments on the Duke Indiana Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, following stakeholder meetings and presentations by the utility. Synapse evaluated commodity prices, scenarios, alternatives considered, future environmental compliance obligations, and the economics of the utility's existing coal units. The final report was published February 2014.

The Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System (M-RETS) tracks information about renewable energy production and delivery in participating states and provinces (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). For this project, Synapse created a model to explore alternatives to the Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System’s (M-RETS) previous fee structure, benchmarked model forecasts to actual data, and created a matrix of Renewable Portfolio Standards tariffs in the M-RETS region.