Since 2005, Synapse has provided analysis of New Jersey's Basic Generation Service (BGS) procurement options for the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel. The BGS procurement process includes annual auctions held by the State of New Jersey for the procurement of fixed-price, basic electric generation service (BGS-FP). BGS-FP service is the name of the rate plan for those residential and small commercial customers who choose not to use a competitive supplier for their electricity needs. Synapse's BGS procurement analysis takes into consideration the BGS auction process and other factors relevant to procurement options for NJ BGS customers. Synapse's analyses include assessment of procurement options in other states; futures markets for electricity, natural gas, and coal; recent auction/RFP results for BGS-FP-equivalent services from other states; PJM technical issues affecting BGS procurement considerations; and other relevant issues. Project work for the 2012 proceeding completed in April 2013.
Synapse performed analysis for the Sustainable FERC project examining the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) process. The work included a more comprehensive summarization and interpretation of the costs and the benefits of the three modeled scenarios from Phase 2 of the EIPC analyses (1 – nationally implemented federal carbon constraint, 2 – regionally implemented national RPS, 3 – business as usual). Synapse's work addressed key issues not fully fleshed out in the EIPC reports, and suggested next logical steps for further analysis. Synapse also reviewed and discussed the extent to which certain changes in core assumptions from the EIPC work might have been useful. Those potential changes included, but were not limited to, variables used in the Phase 2 and/or Phase 1 analyses: 1) wind capital costs, 2) wind performance, 3) system flexibility (supply and demand resource), 4) demand side costs (EE/DR), 5) wind integration costs, 6) coordination across regions.
An Expanded Analysis of the Costs and Benefits of Base Case and Carbon Reduction Scenarios in the EIPC Process
This project sought to determine the health damages from air emissions that could be avoided by implementing energy efficiency (EE) or renewable energy (RE) at specific areas in the PJM Interconnect. Synapse modeled displaced generation and emissions from EE/RE using the PROSYM model, and a Boston University team determined the discrete health impacts imparted by the largest generators in PJM. Using this information, the project team created a tool to determine the health impacts that are avoidable by implementing EE/RE throughout various locations in the Interconnect.
Synapse assisted Sierra Club with a clean energy plan for Washington State, which advocates the replacement of imported coal generation. Synapse provided estimates of job impact factors from energy efficiency, wind, solar, and natural gas in Washington. The results were presented to the Governor and the Washington Climate Legislative and Executive Committee.
Synapse provided technical support to the NGO sector involved in the U.S. DOE-funded planning collaborative for new transmission in the eastern electrical grid interconnection of the U.S. and Canada. Synapse assessed modeling inputs, future scenarios, modeling mechanisms, and transmission build-out alternatives for the purpose of gauging the economic effects of future resource expansion scenarios, particularly those that can help lower the carbon intensity of the U.S. power sector.
Synapse examined the economic impacts of NRDC’s proposed carbon emissions standard for existing power plants under the Clean Air Act’s Section 111(d), including estimation of the changes in employment, state and national income, and consumer utility bills in 14 states and for the United States as a whole for wind, solar, coal, natural gas, and energy efficiency resources.
For this project, Synapse reviewed existing demand-side resources in the Midwest ISO and mechanisms for demand resources (energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation) to participate in the Midwest ISO energy and capacity markets. Synapse also analyzed existing practices for demand resources participation in the energy and capacity markets in the other ISO/RTOS and how these resources were accounted for in their transmission planning processes. The project team suggested the "best practices" approach for incorporation of demand-side resources into the Midwest ISO markets and transmission planning.
Forecasts of electricity demand are essential for analyses of utility regulation and planning. Yet the forecasts used by utilities are typically purchased at substantial cost from specialized vendors and are declared to be confidential business information. There is a need for independent, non-confidential forecasts of load growth that can be used and discussed in analyzing utility issues at relatively low cost. Synapse developed forecasts of electricity consumption by state for each major customer class (residential, commercial, and industrial), drawing on the extensive availability of state-level economic, climate, and energy data. Specifically, we performed ordinary least squares (OLS) analyses of data, leading to a usable, easily applied forecasting framework. We also identified areas where additional development would be likely to lead to improved or more reliable methods. Project completed October 2013.
The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) released a series of reports claiming to show that state and federal policies promoting renewable energy are extremely expensive, job-killing regulations. At the request of the Civil Society Institute (CSI), Synapse prepared a brief critique of the ALEC studies, identifying fundamental flaws in both their energy analysis and their economic modeling.
Martin Drake units 5, 6, and 7 are three coal-fired electric generators owned by Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) located in downtown Colorado Springs. CSU commissioned the independent consulting firm HDR to guide the utility's decision regarding whether and in what year to retire each Drake unit, taking into account expensive environmental retrofits that would be required if Drake were to continue to operate. Synapse reviewed HDR's report, which considers various multi-year investment alternatives based on sustainable return on investment (SROI) and financial return on investment (FROI). Synapse found a number of opportunities to improve the assumptions and inputs used in HDR’s FROI analysis, including revising load, coal price, and natural gas price forecasts; accounting for site remediation and the operating costs associated with a carbon price; and considering the likelihood of higher capital costs for retrofits. On behalf of Sierra Club, Synapse summarized the recommendations in a report distributed to the Martin Drake Citizen Task Force, a group commissioned by the Colorado Springs City Council to assess the viability of the power plant.
Synapse assisted ACEEE with their clean energy plans for several U.S. states by developing avoided cost values as well as fuel costs and utility investments. Synapse assisted in the development of clean energy plans for North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Arkansas. The energy future reports can be found on the ACEEE website.
For the 7th International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL ’13), Kenji Takahashi and colleagues prepared a paper discussing the methodologies and results of a Synapse study on heat pump performance. The study examined the hypothetical operation of two “efficient” HVAC technology options—a two-stage heat pump and an inverter pump—for single family homes that were built around 1990 and that require replacement of a ducted HVAC system. Synapse then compared those options to a reference-case option—consisting of an efficient natural gas furnace and a central air conditioning system—on the basis of energy, environmental, and economic impacts for 11 U.S. cities with varied climates.
Synapse was contracted by the Sierra Club to assess the market viability of Edison International’s Illinois-based coal-fired power plants. A published report of the findings analyzed the forward-going economics facing Edison International’s merchant coal units and addressed the reliability implications of coal retirements in Western PJM.
Synapse analyzed the economic and environmental impacts of a municipal utility's proposition to build a 78-MW multi-fuel CFB (Circulating Fluidized-Bed) boiler in Holland. To do so, Synapse investigated all provided modeling inputs and outputs and case documents, and made recommendations for improved modeling inputs.
Synapse provided policy, analytic, and research support for the EPA's Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency programs. Synapse developed a comprehensive analysis to estimate the impact of clean energy initiatives for State Implementation Plans and provided recommendations to improve EPA's existing energy efficiency models and methods.
For this project, Synapse reviewed existing demand-side resources in the Midwest ISO and mechanisms for demand resources (energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation) to participate in the Midwest ISO energy and capacity markets. Synapse also analyzed existing practices for demand resources participation in the energy and capacity markets in the other ISO/RTOS and how these resources were accounted for in their transmission planning processes. The project team suggested the "best practices" approach for incorporation of demand-side resources into the Midwest ISO markets and transmission planning.
In December 2011 Kentucky Power, owned by American Electric Power (AEP), one of the country’s largest electric holding companies, requested approval for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) and associated cost recovery to invest approximately $950 million on environmental compliance measures at its Big Sandy Unit 2, an 800 MW coal unit approximately 40 years old. Synapse, testifying on behalf of the Sierra Club, demonstrated that the proposed investment was not reasonable because it was more cost-effective for Kentucky Power to retire that unit and meet its capacity and energy requirements from other resources. The utility withdrew its request on May 30, 2012, just days before the Kentucky Commission was scheduled to issue its Order.
Synapse conducted analysis of new long-term electric contracting law in New Jersey.
The Iowa Utilities Board (IUB), via funding from the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), retained Synapse to analyze the factors that will affect the choice of capacity to replace coal-fired capacity located in the MISO region that is likely to retire by 2020. The Synapse report presents a high-level analysis of key potential impacts on the region’s wholesale electric and natural gas markets in 2020 for three possible cases of coal capacity retirements and mixes of replacement capacity—a base case, a high gas-fired capacity case, and an additional wind capacity case.
Synapse reviewed the Needs Assessment performed by the ISO-NE regarding Dominion Energy Resources, Inc.'s request to de-list all four units at the Salem Harbor station for the power year from June 2012 to May 2013.
Synapse participated on a team of consultants to examine utility energy efficiency program "best practices" in the Southwest, and to estimate the benefits that would result across the region from scaling up the best practice programs. Synapse's role in this project was to model the utility system impacts and public health benefits that would result from the best practice scale-up scenario. Synapse calculated avoided electricity costs for each state in the study region (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) for the 2010-2030 timeframe. Synapse also analyzed the emission reductions and associated health benefits that would occur as a result of the best practices scenario. The study found that by investing a total of $17 billion in best practice energy efficiency programs the Southwest region could realize $37 billion in overall benefits.
Synapse analyzed the forward going costs of the entire fleet of coal-fired power plants in the western U.S. in order to develop a recommended coal retirement scenario for use in modeling by the Western Grid Operator. We considered the costs of compliance with environmental regulations, and ordered the existing coal plants based upon net asset value. The retirement scenario was utilized by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in its system planning model.
WECC Coal Plant Retirement Based on Forward-Going Economic Merit
Synapse assisted stakeholders in the Midwest ISO (MISO) to advocate for the inclusion of demand resources, energy efficiency, and demand response in MISO markets and transmission planning. As part of this work, Synapse researched and published an analysis of the Global Energy Partners report on energy efficiency and demand response potential in MISO in the fall of 2010.
Synapse was retained by the California Energy Commission to assess the possibility of abating air emissions in California through the implementation of energy efficiency and renewable generation programs. The project occurred in two phases. The goal of the first phase of the project was to first build upon existing data and models to develop a framework for estimating the emissions reductions attributable to specific clean energy resources and then to apply these methodologies to develop estimates of emissions reductions applicable to clean energy projects in California. The primary steps of the project consisted of identifying and characterizing various renewable energy projects and the state’s energy efficiency potential, the assessment of models and their strengths and limitations, a discussion of the protocol for determining SIP credits, and the identification of evaluation procedures to validate the effectiveness of projects or measures. This project involved the development of both a near-term and a long-term emission displacement quantification framework.
In phase two, Synapse developed a spreadsheet tool for California air districts to use to estimate the quantity of air emissions that can be reduced from the state’s energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) programs. Synapse performed electric system dispatch modeling to evaluate energy effects on EE/RE, and whether the location of the EE/RE resource reveals differences in what generation is displaced. Model outputs were then used to calculate potential criteria and greenhouse gas pollutant reductions. The spreadsheet tool is intended to be an asset to air districts, as they assess the efficacy of various control measures that can be implemented to attain ozone and fine particulate air quality standards, and to help meet California’s 2050 greenhouse gas reduction goals.
Together with Optimal Energy, Synapse examined the economic impacts of Energy Efficiency Utility investments in Vermont based on the 2012 budgets for energy efficiency spending proposed by the Vermont Department of Public Service. The costs, savings and economic benefits resulting from the efficiency programs were evaluated by sector (residential, commercial, industrial) and modeled over a 20-year study period (2012-2031) using the REMI PI+ economic model.
Synapse researched and wrote a paper describing the need for changes to PJM system planning procedures and rules in order to address the challenges of the 21st century. Changes include better forecasting of future loads, and resources that incorporate public policy goals and future efficiency trends. The report focuses on PJM’s current reform efforts, the compliance requirements of FERC NOPR on Transmission Planning (Order 1000), and the impact of EPA regulations. Ultimately, PJM must demonstrate that its planning process contributes to just and reasonable rates with no undue discrimination.
Synapse reviewed whether Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company’s requested acquisition of the OU Spirit Facility, purchase of wind energy under wind energy purchase agreements with Keenan and Taloga, and resulting rate recovery were in the public interest.
A companion to Synapse’s 2010 report Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the U.S. (BBAU 2010), this study examines the substantial “external” costs of burning coal to produce electricity—such as premature deaths, social costs, and environmental damages—and estimates the degree to which these costs could be avoided by 2050 by moving to the Transition Scenario modeled in the BBAU 2010 report.
A companion to Synapse’s 2010 report Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the U.S. (BBAU 2010), this study examines the substantial “external” costs of burning coal to produce electricity—such as premature deaths, social costs, and environmental damages—and estimates the degree to which these costs could be avoided by 2050 by moving to the Transition Scenario modeled in the BBAU 2010 report.
For this project, Synapse reviewed existing demand-side resources in the Midwest ISO and mechanisms for demand resources (energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation) to participate in the Midwest ISO energy and capacity markets. Synapse also analyzed existing practices for demand resources participation in the energy and capacity markets in the other ISO/RTOS and how these resources were accounted for in their transmission planning processes. The project team suggested the "best practices" approach for incorporation of demand-side resources into the Midwest ISO markets and transmission planning.