Synapse performed analysis for the Sustainable FERC project examining the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) process. The work included a more comprehensive summarization and interpretation of the costs and the benefits of the three modeled scenarios from Phase 2 of the EIPC analyses (1 – nationally implemented federal carbon constraint, 2 – regionally implemented national RPS, 3 – business as usual). Synapse's work addressed key issues not fully fleshed out in the EIPC reports, and suggested next logical steps for further analysis. Synapse also reviewed and discussed the extent to which certain changes in core assumptions from the EIPC work might have been useful. Those potential changes included, but were not limited to, variables used in the Phase 2 and/or Phase 1 analyses: 1) wind capital costs, 2) wind performance, 3) system flexibility (supply and demand resource), 4) demand side costs (EE/DR), 5) wind integration costs, 6) coordination across regions.

Synapse assisted Sierra Club with a clean energy plan for Washington State, which advocates the replacement of imported coal generation. Synapse provided estimates of job impact factors from energy efficiency, wind, solar, and natural gas in Washington. The results were presented to the Governor and the Washington Climate Legislative and Executive Committee. 

Synapse examined the economic impacts of NRDC’s proposed carbon emissions standard for existing power plants under the Clean Air Act’s Section 111(d), including estimation of the changes in employment, state and national income, and consumer utility bills in 14 states and for the United States as a whole for wind, solar, coal, natural gas, and energy efficiency resources. 

Forecasts of electricity demand are essential for analyses of utility regulation and planning. Yet the forecasts used by utilities are typically purchased at substantial cost from specialized vendors and are declared to be confidential business information. There is a need for independent, non-confidential forecasts of load growth that can be used and discussed in analyzing utility issues at relatively low cost. Synapse developed forecasts of electricity consumption by state for each major customer class (residential, commercial, and industrial), drawing on the extensive availability of state-level economic, climate, and energy data. Specifically, we performed ordinary least squares (OLS) analyses of data, leading to a usable, easily applied forecasting framework. We also identified areas where additional development would be likely to lead to improved or more reliable methods. Project completed October 2013.

Martin Drake units 5, 6, and 7 are three coal-fired electric generators owned by Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) located in downtown Colorado Springs. CSU commissioned the independent consulting firm HDR to guide the utility's decision regarding whether and in what year to retire each Drake unit, taking into account expensive environmental retrofits that would be required if Drake were to continue to operate. Synapse reviewed HDR's report, which considers various multi-year investment alternatives based on sustainable return on investment (SROI) and financial return on investment (FROI). Synapse found a number of opportunities to improve the assumptions and inputs used in HDR’s FROI analysis, including revising load, coal price, and natural gas price forecasts; accounting for site remediation and the operating costs associated with a carbon price; and considering the likelihood of higher capital costs for retrofits. On behalf of Sierra Club, Synapse summarized the recommendations in a report distributed to the Martin Drake Citizen Task Force, a group commissioned by the Colorado Springs City Council to assess the viability of the power plant.

For the 7^th International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL ’13), Kenji Takahashi and colleagues prepared a paper discussing the methodologies and results of a Synapse study on heat pump performance. The study examined the hypothetical operation of two “efficient” HVAC technology options—a two-stage heat pump and an inverter pump—for single family homes that were built around 1990 and that require replacement of a ducted HVAC system. Synapse then compared those options to a reference-case option—consisting of an efficient natural gas furnace and a central air conditioning system—on the basis of energy, environmental, and economic impacts for 11 U.S. cities with varied climates.

Synapse analyzed the economic and environmental impacts of a municipal utility's proposition to build a 78-MW multi-fuel CFB (Circulating Fluidized-Bed) boiler in Holland. To do so, Synapse investigated all provided modeling inputs and outputs and case documents, and made recommendations for improved modeling inputs. 

For this project, Synapse reviewed existing demand-side resources in the Midwest ISO and mechanisms for demand resources (energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation) to participate in the Midwest ISO energy and capacity markets. Synapse also analyzed existing practices for demand resources participation in the energy and capacity markets in the other ISO/RTOS and how these resources were accounted for in their transmission planning processes. The project team suggested the "best practices" approach for incorporation of demand-side resources into the Midwest ISO markets and transmission planning.

Synapse conducted analysis of new long-term electric contracting law in New Jersey.

Synapse reviewed the Needs Assessment performed by the ISO-NE regarding Dominion Energy Resources, Inc.'s request to de-list all four units at the Salem Harbor station for the power year from June 2012 to May 2013. 

Synapse analyzed the forward going costs of the entire fleet of coal-fired power plants in the western U.S. in order to develop a recommended coal retirement scenario for use in modeling by the Western Grid Operator.  We considered the costs of compliance with environmental regulations, and ordered the existing coal plants based upon net asset value. The retirement scenario was utilized by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in its system planning model.

Synapse was retained by the California Energy Commission to assess the possibility of abating air emissions in California through the implementation of energy efficiency and renewable generation programs. The project occurred in two phases. The goal of the first phase of the project was to first build upon existing data and models to develop a framework for estimating the emissions reductions attributable to specific clean energy resources and then to apply these methodologies to develop estimates of emissions reductions applicable to clean energy projects in California. The primary steps of the project consisted of identifying and characterizing various renewable energy projects and the state’s energy efficiency potential, the assessment of models and their strengths and limitations, a discussion of the protocol for determining SIP credits, and the identification of evaluation procedures to validate the effectiveness of projects or measures. This project involved the development of both a near-term and a long-term emission displacement quantification framework.

In phase two, Synapse developed a spreadsheet tool for California air districts to use to estimate the quantity of air emissions that can be reduced from the state’s energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) programs. Synapse performed electric system dispatch modeling to evaluate energy effects on EE/RE, and whether the location of the EE/RE resource reveals differences in what generation is displaced. Model outputs were then used to calculate potential criteria and greenhouse gas pollutant reductions. The spreadsheet tool is intended to be an asset to air districts, as they assess the efficacy of various control measures that can be implemented to attain ozone and fine particulate air quality standards, and to help meet California’s 2050 greenhouse gas reduction goals. 

Synapse researched and wrote a paper describing the need for changes to PJM system planning procedures and rules in order to address the challenges of the 21st century. Changes include better forecasting of future loads, and resources that incorporate public policy goals and future efficiency trends. The report focuses on PJM’s current reform efforts, the compliance requirements of FERC NOPR on Transmission Planning (Order 1000), and the impact of EPA regulations. Ultimately, PJM must demonstrate that its planning process contributes to just and reasonable rates with no undue discrimination.

A companion to Synapse’s 2010 report Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the U.S. (BBAU 2010), this study examines the substantial “external” costs of burning coal to produce electricity—such as premature deaths, social costs, and environmental damages—and estimates the degree to which these costs could be avoided by 2050 by moving to the Transition Scenario modeled in the BBAU 2010 report.