A companion to Synapse’s 2010 report Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the U.S. (BBAU 2010), this study examines the substantial “external” costs of burning coal to produce electricity—such as premature deaths, social costs, and environmental damages—and estimates the degree to which these costs could be avoided by 2050 by moving to the Transition Scenario modeled in the BBAU 2010 report.

Synapse conducted a study on behalf of the Civil Society Institute (CSI) to estimate the employment impacts of a scenario in which all coal-fired electric generation and much of the nuclear power existing in the United States in 2010 is phased out through 2050 and replaced with renewable generation and energy efficiency measures. This scenario was developed in a previous study completed for CSI in May 2010. The analysis utilized the IMPLAN model to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of this coal and nuclear phase-out on eight multi-state regions and on the U.S. as a whole. 

The purpose of this project was to provide comments on Minnesota Power's 2010 IRP after analyzing the Company's Strategist modeling results and presenting our own modeling scenarios and results. Synapse participated in several rounds of discovery questions asked to MN Power, replicated the five modeling scenarios analyzed by the Company, performed sensitivity analysis modeling on those scenarios, and created a "Synapse Reference Case." Synapse also modeled several retirement scenarios based on the Synapse Reference Case. Comments were due in September 2010 with rebuttal comments due one month later.

On behalf of Sierra Club, Synapse examined and assisted in responding to Southwestern Public Service Company's arguments regarding reliability as it relates to the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR). Bruce Biewald testified before the United State Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on the use of probabilistic computer models to properly analyze system reliability.

For this study, Synapse evaluated and compared two scenarios:

• Business as Usual (BAU): Under this scenario, the country continues to rely on fossil and nuclear generation to meet its energy needs, and electric-sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to increase.

• Transition Scenario: Under this scenario, the country moves toward a power system based on efficiency and renewable energy, and CO2 emissions are reduced substantially. In the Transition Scenario, all U.S. coal-fired power plants are retired, along with nearly a quarter of the nation’s nuclear fleet, by 2050.

Synapse estimated the net costs and benefits of the Transition Scenario relative to BAU using a spreadsheet model that accounted for generating capacity, energy, fuel use, costs, emissions, and water use. The study found that the Transition Scenario was significantly less expensive than the BAU Scenario—saving a present value of $83 billion over 40 years. This finding was particularly striking, given that the BAU Scenario included no carbon costs or carbon reductions. Project completed in 2011.

The project reviewed, critiqued and provided expert testimony on distributed generation and demand response aspects of Ontario Power Authority’s proposed “Integrated Power System Plan.”

Synapse was retained to collaborate with Nova Scotia Power on an update to its Integrated Resource Planning process. The planning was done subject to a hard cap on system carbon dioxide emissions, and other constraints. The resulting reference plan included aggressive development of wind and biomass, and rapid ramp-up of energy efficiency programs.

Synapse was contracted by the Energy Foundation to perform a re-analysis of an econometric study regarding the cost of energy efficiency nationwide. The initial study examined trends in several hundred utility power deliveries, and structured a regression model to predict the impact of demand-side management (DSM) spending on ultimate deliveries to consumers. The study found a relatively high cost of energy efficiency, indicating that fairly little energy efficiency could be achieved, and at a high cost. The re-analysis examined initial data assumptions and the validity of the model construct in close cooperation with the initial study's authors. The final deliverable of this project us a white paper and executive briefing for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Information Administration, both charged with modeling the atmospheric impacts and costs of pending climate legislation in the U.S.

Synapse analyzed a scenario for the Civil Society Institute in which energy efficiency and renewable energy replace coal-fired power generation by 2050. The analysis divided the country into eight regions and investigated how each region could phase out coal-fired electricity. The study found that, by 2050, expanded energy efficiency efforts could reduce electricity demand from current levels by 15 percent and that renewable energy could provide nearly half of the 2050 demand. Importantly, the coal-fired generation could be eliminated without increasing the country's reliance on nuclear power. The plan would involve modest near-term costs but would save money over the long term. "Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the U.S" was released in May 2010.

Synapse conducted an analysis of the projected costs and benefits of BGE’s proposed Smart Grid Initiative as well as the proposed allocation of Initiative costs among rate classes and the design of the proposed Smart Grid Charge.

Synapse analyzed the policy and ratemaking implications of Allegheny Power and the FirstEnergy Companies filings, the level of projected benefits of the proposed Smart Meter Plans relative to their projected costs, the uncertainty associated with those benefits, and the allocation and rate design issues underlying the cost recovery proposals. 

Synapse provided expert analysis and testimony in support of a proposed wind farm to be located in Vermont. Our analysis showed that the project will provide needed power, will satisfy renewable energy requirements in the state and the broader region, and provide a hedge against fuel and emissions costs for Vermont ratepayers.

Synapse was retained to review aspects of Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) policy and associated state policies, with the aim of implementing consistent and effective policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions at reasonable cost while minimizing "leakage," or electric system policy boundary, problems.

Synapse was retained by Arkansas Public Service Commission staff as a subcontractor to Larkin Associates to provide assistance for a variety of projects related to electric resource planning and power procurement during July 2006 through June 2007. The first project evaluated whether Entergy Arkansas Inc. (EAI)’s proposed acquisition of a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) capacity was in the public interest. Tasks included the preparation of a background report on fuel diversity policies and practices, and testimony supporting the findings. This work assisted the Commission in its determination of whether to recommend the adoption of a fuel diversity standard under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005).

Synapse also evaluated the economics of a proposed coal plant in southwestern Arkansas. Synapse found that the Southwestern Electric Power Company (SWEPCO) had not prudently considered the potential for further increases in the cost of building the plant or the costs of likely federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Additionally, Synapse reviewed changes to Entergy’s avoided cost methodology, and a proposed scrubber installation on an existing plant. All projects were completed August 2009.