Now updated to include the Clean Power Plan and other relevant regulations, the Synapse CO₂ price forecasts reflect a reasonable range of expectations regarding future efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Prudent planning requires that utilities and stakeholders take this cost into account when engaging in resource planning. Our forecast, updated annually, includes low, mid, and high case projections for CO₂ prices out to 2040 based on thorough analysis of proposed federal regulatory measures, ongoing state and regional policies, the price of CO₂ already being factored into federal rulemakings, recent CO₂ price forecasts from utility IRPs, and policy analysis and modeling from the research community.

Synapse and a team of subcontractors developed projections of electricity and natural gas costs that would be avoided due to reductions in electricity and natural gas use resulting from improvements in energy efficiency. The 2021 report provides projections of avoided costs of electricity and natural gas by year from 2021 through 2035 with extrapolated values through the mid-2050s. In addition to projecting the costs of energy and capacity avoided directly by program participants, the report provides estimates of the Demand Reduction Induced Price Effect (DRIPE) of efficiency programs on wholesale market prices for electric energy, electric capacity, and natural gas. The report also provides a projection of avoided costs of fuel oil and other fuels, non-embedded environmental costs associated with emissions of CO₂ and NO_X, avoided costs of transmission and distribution, and the value of reliability. The 2021 AESC study was sponsored by a group representing all of the major electric and gas utilities in New England as well as efficiency program administrators, energy offices, regulators, and advocates. Synapse conducted prior AESC studies in 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2018.

Visit our AESC 2021 Materials page to download the AESC 2021 report appendices, user interfaces, a slide deck on the study findings, and supplemental studies.

Visit our AESC 2018 Materials page to review the 2018 report and additional materials.

Synapse has also conducted supplemental analysis on the avoided costs of compliance of the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act. Visit here for more details.

On behalf of Eversource Electric in Connecticut, Synapse developed an active demand reduction (ADR) benefit-cost (BC) screening model. Additionally, Synapse investigated storage benefits beyond those captured in the 2018 Avoided Energy Supply Costs study to be used either as quantitative inputs to the BC screening model or as qualitative information that will support the development of storage programs. By drawing upon literature reviews and common industry assumptions, Synapse produced storage non-energy benefits that could be input into the ADR BC model.

Synapse was retained to provide expert witness and consulting services to the Hawaii Division of Consumer Advocacy in a proceeding to develop and review integrated resource plans (IRPs) for three electric companies. Topics include scenario planning, resource modeling, community and stakeholder input processes, and analysis of locally produced biofuels, wind and solar energy opportunities (both distributed and large scale), battery storage, and other renewable energy options. The three major electric companies supplying 95 percent of Hawaii’s electricity are simultaneously facing the need to retrofit or replace existing generation impacted by new environmental regulations and the onset of a very stringent renewable portfolio standard (40 percent by 2030). Imported fossil fuel costs are the primary driver behind high electricity rates and subject Hawaiian residents to rapidly fluctuating prices. Currently all of the Hawaiian Islands operate their electricity systems independently; a major planning issue going forward is interconnecting several of the islands using undersea cables in order to better integrate and manage high levels of variable renewable energy. On behalf of the client, Synapse is reviewing these key issues and addressing how best to meet future constraints and policy goals while minimizing costs to consumers.

The Maryland Office of People’s Counsel retained Synapse to provide expert witness testimony on multi-year rate plans by the Potomac Electric Power Company and Baltimore Gas and Electric Company. This included an examination of capital planning processes, proposed performance incentive mechanisms, and recommendations for tracking metrics. 

The Minnesota Department of Commerce, Division of Energy Resources retained Synapse to support its exploration of privacy and security issues related to Minnesota utilities’ hosting capacity analyses (HCA) and distribution grid data. As with other jurisdictions modernizing the grid, Minnesota seeks to balance the data access needed to support distributed energy resource (DER) uptake with maintaining a secure grid that protects the privacy of customers.

 Xcel Energy (Xcel), Minnesota’s largest electricity provider, has made its HCA available via an online map, but blurs the display of the data in a way that does not reveal discrete circuits, and provides less system information. Xcel claims that an unblurred map would make the distribution grid unnecessarily vulnerable to attack and would jeopardize customer security and confidentiality.

Synapse wrote a report stating that Xcel should unblur its HCA map and place it behind a verified web login portal that is open to the public. In reaching this conclusion, Synapse noted that:

• Location information on distribution facilities is likely already in the public domain
• Various tools exist to help map distribution lines
• Providing distribution line information provides significant value to DER developers
• Focusing on strengthening the grid’s physical and cybersecurity defenses, and increasing grid resiliency, is more effective at deterring attackers than concealing information.

For sensitive grid data, such as peak substation and feeder loads, which is currently not provided on the HCA map, Synapse recommended applying a risk/cost-benefit framework to balance grid security with the public benefits of HCA map data. The framework could help determine whether specific, sensitive grid data should be published on its HCA map, and how secure access to this data should be provided. Synapse suggested that Xcel consider a tiered-access approach that helps streamline access to non-public grid data and does not make requirements unnecessarily burdensome.

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories contracted Synapse Energy Economics to improve understanding and provide guidance on the challenges and opportunities facing communities and electric utilities seeking to coordinate energy-related resilience efforts. The research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and conducted as part of the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium’s Designing Resilient Communities: A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment (DRC) project. Synapse was one of several government, industry, and university partners on the project team and provided expertise on electric utility regulation.

Synapse produced a series of five reports exploring several important topics related to its area of focus, including:

• Current landscape: structured interviews with six community and utility pairs to better characterize the existing state of resilience planning within and across jurisdictions and identify opportunities for improvement;
• Benefit-cost analysis for grid investments in resilience: the first application of the framework developed in the 2020 National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources to grid resilience investments;
• Resilience performance metrics: guidance for jurisdictions to take the important step of defining and establishing performance metrics for resilience;
• Resilient public purpose microgrids: definition of the term and characterization of five project types that may be more likely to receive ratepayer funding; and
• Regulatory mechanisms to support resilience: mechanisms that electric utility regulators can use to align grid resilience investments with resilience interests and priorities.

Synapse is providing expert assistance to the Conservation Law Foundation in regard to Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) docket 20-80. The Massachusetts DPU opened docket 20‐80 to examine the role of Massachusetts gas local distribution companies in helping the Commonwealth to achieve its 2050 climate goals. The DPU’s order requires the state’s gas utilities to complete studies over the next year that will inform this examination and allow the DPU and other state agencies to develop the specific roadmap to required emission reductions. 

Synapse produced the white paper below which presents a set of criteria for the required “future of gas” studies and has been submitted to docket 20-80. These criteria are designed to ensure that the studies will present sufficient, detailed, and justified data, analysis, and recommendations to inform the DPU and relevant stakeholders.

On behalf of Counsel to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, Synapse analyzed and developed evidence regarding Nova Scotia Power’s (NS Power) proposed time-varying rate application. Synapse witness Melissa Whited recommended that the Board approve NS Power's proposed time-of-use and critical peak price tariffs and recommended that other aspects of the proposal be modified or rejected. In particular, Ms. Whited's evidence critiqued NS Power's proposed "Soft Launch" approach as failing to include adequate details regarding customer engagement strategy, as well as providing insufficient planning for evaluation, measurement, and verification. In addition, Ms. Whited found the company's lost revenue adjustment mechanism to be flawed and unnecessary, and certain tariff requirements to be overly restrictive. Finally, Ms. Whited's evidence pointed to the need to better incorporate long-run marginal costs into future tariff modifications.

On behalf of the National Parks Conservation Association (NPCA), Synapse prepared a report and briefed stakeholders and relevant parties on its its findings regarding Dominion's need for the Surry-Skiffes Creek 500 kV Transmission Line that was constructed across the Jamestown River.

In this report, we review Dominion and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ justification for the Surry-Skiffes Creek-Whealton project, evaluate the actual level of need in the NHRLA, and develop a set of alternative portfolios that can meet area need and comply with North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) requirements without the Surry-Skiffes Creek project. We recommend that in the upcoming Environmental Impact Statement, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers should require that Dominion evaluate modular battery storage as a new supply option, and update its load forecast.

On behalf of the Eastern Environmental Law Center (EELC), Synapse and subcontractor John Rosenkranz conducted a comprehensive assessment of National Grid’s Capacity Report released February 24, 2020. National Grid's Capacity Report detailed gas peak demand forecasts through the winter of 2034/35, modeling both High Demand and Low Demand scenarios. The report then assessed various long-term gas solutions to fill these gaps. These potential solutions included various large-scale gas infrastructure projects such as the NESE pipeline and LNG facilities, as well as a “No Infrastructure” option which solely relies on additional demand-side resources.

Our analysis found various errors in National Grid’s assessments of the rate of customer conversion from oil to natural gas for the load forecasts, expected levels and costs of energy efficiency and heat pumps under existing or expanded policies and programs, and gas supply resources. The report concludes that corrections to these errors and appropriate treatment of demand-side measures, with or without small changes in National Grid’s supply planning assumptions, eliminates the need for any of the large-scale infrastructure investments examined in the Capacity Report.

On behalf of Environmental Defense Fund, Synapse conducted a benefit-cost analysis of proposed emissions rules drafted by the New Mexico Environment Department. These proposed rules curb emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the oil and gas industry in New Mexico. The analysis compared implementation costs to four types of benefits to the state of New Mexico: sales from newly captured gas, avoided costs related to human health impacts, avoided nonattainment costs of reduced GHG emissions, and the global societal benefit of reducing methane emissions into the atmosphere. The report presents three different approaches to the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of the proposed rules (e.g., New Mexico BCR, National BCR, and Global BCR) – all of which are cost-effective according to the Synapse analysis.

The 100PercentCT Project developed by People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE) supports the transition to a clean energy economy in Connecticut. The project’s primary function is to conduct energy analyses to help inform individual towns and the State of Connecticut about opportunities to achieve 100 percent renewable energy for the buildings and transportation sectors. PACE developed the Town Energy Analysis model—an in-house, techno-economic tool—to inventory energy use and emissions in Connecticut towns and evaluate strategies to transition to renewable energy.

Synapse performed an in-depth review of PACE’s Town Energy Analysis model to identify opportunities to improve upon and expand the model. We evaluated the modeling methods, sectors, and scope included in the energy analysis, as well as the inputs and data sources used. We compared PACE’s model alongside 10 publicly available energy and climate modeling tools to identify opportunities to align the Town Energy Analysis model with current best practices in energy and greenhouse gas accounting and in identification of mitigation opportunities.

Synapse issued a report to PACE presenting our review of the Town Energy Analysis model. First, our report summarizes the energy and climate modeling tools used to establish current energy and climate planning best practices for analytical models. Next, we validate PACE’s model and identify specific changes to improve key data, inputs, methods, and assumptions used in the model. We conclude by identifying additional modeling approaches, clean energy strategies, market segments, and energy impacts for the possible inclusion within PACE’s Town Energy Analysis model.

Synapse, subcontracting to Eastern Research Group, supported the Maine Climate Council in modeling economy-wide decarbonization pathways for the state that met the state’s goal of reducing emissions by 45 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050 below 1990 levels. Synapse analyzed the transportation, buildings, and electric power sectors using its suite of electrification and decarbonization models. Synapse used its EV-REDI and Building Decarbonization Calculator (BDC) tools to determine trajectories for the adoption of non-emitting electric vehicles (EV) and heat pumps needed to reduce emissions in line with the state’s 2030 and 2050 targets. Using these models, we also calculated the resulting electricity consumption, which we used as an input into the electric sector modeling to ensure that enough clean energy would be generated to meet the growing needs of an electrified economy. Synapse used the EnCompass model to develop a scenario in which Maine’s renewable portfolio standard increased to 100 percent by 2050. Synapse also evaluated reasonable emissions reduction trajectories in other sectors of the economy. The resulting analysis illustrated some of the tradeoffs between reducing emissions through different technological pathways. Synapse energy sector modeling informed the Maine Climate Council's recommendations published in the final report "Maine Won't Wait: A Four-year Plan for Climate Action."