Avoided Energy Supply Costs in New England 2021 study materials:

• AESC 2021 Report - May Re-Release
• AESC 2021 Report - March Release
• Click here to download the User Interfaces.
• Appendices for the AESC 2021 Report and a slide deck with study results can be found below. 

For more information about the AESC study, please visit our project page.

Synapse assisted the Regulatory Assistance Project with developing a guide utility regulators and other policymakers can use to adapt regulatory frameworks so that their jurisdictions can capture the full benefits of beneficial electrification and associated load flexibility in buildings. Technologies such as controllable water heaters, smart thermostats, and air source heat pumps create new opportunities for buildings to flexibly manage energy use and interact with the power grid in ways that benefit the electric system, homeowners, and the environment. Yet, many existing regulations were not designed to support the transition to lower-emission, electrified, and grid-integrated buildings. The guide focuses on ways to adapt regulations so that building electrification can be equitable, flexible, and grid-integrated. The guidebook addresses the need to update to fuel-neutral energy efficiency resource standards and program design, as well as to modernize building codes and performance standards and the evaluation of gas infrastructure needs. In addition to the guide, the authors provided an interactive webinar on ways to help regulators support the evolution of regulatory frameworks. 

On behalf of the City of Boston, Synapse performed an in-depth building energy data analysis to develop a draft building emissions performance standard. The analysis involved developing frameworks and cost impacts for mandatory GHG emissions targets by building type that decrease over time. As part of the project, Synapse convened and facilitated a series of technical discussions with an advisory group comprised of experts in building science, architecture, engineering, construction, building operations, energy policy, renewable energy, and affordable housing. Using input from the City and the advisory group, Synapse developed recommendations, including proposed targets by building type, example compliance strategies, and aggregate cost estimates. Advisory group meeting materials are available on the City's website. The report published below describes the proposed standard and the methodology used to develop it.

Synapse partnered with subcontractor Slipstream, Inc. to produce a comprehensive assessment of the energy storage potential in Iowa for the Iowa Economic Development Authority. The study produced forecasts of energy storage deployments in Iowa. By 2035, Iowa could see between 1 GW and 2 GW of energy storage deployed within the state. The study found that the scale and pace of energy storage deployments in Iowa will depend on many factors. This includes future capital and maintenance costs for battery storage systems, wholesale market reforms, and the degree to which state regulators incentivize utilities to consider storage as an alternative to traditional utility investments.

The study included macroeconomic modeling using Implan to explore the impacts on Iowa's gross domestic product and employment. The state economic impacts of a growing battery storage industry were estimated to be limited, but positive. This includes net job impacts ranging from 298 to 595 full-time equivalent jobs and state gross domestic product impacts from $13 million to $24 million per year. The macroeconomic impacts could be larger if Iowa attracts new businesses to the state that are part of the battery storage supply chain.

The Iowa energy storage study included an assessment of the barriers and best practices to the development of sustainable market opportunities for energy storage in Iowa. This report identified three key barriers to the broader implementation of storage in Iowa. These include: (1) lack of current alignment between storage value and markets; (2) the relatively high capital cost of battery systems; and (3) uncertainty in the future (for markets, regulation, and battery technology).

Read the Iowa Economic Development Authority's Executive Summary here.

The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency hired Synapse to assess the financial condition of Exelon's Illinois nuclear fleet following the announcement by Exelon that it intends to shutdown the Byron and Dresden nuclear stations starting in September 2021. The information from this financial audit will help inform legislative action regarding how the state should respond to the announced closure timeline.

For this project, Synapse incorporated a Monte Carlo simulation that encompassed distribution and probabilities of revenues and costs for the Byron, Dresden, Braidwood, and LaSalle plants over the next five and 10 years.

Through this analysis, Synapse found the following:

• The Byron plant has a five-year expected net present value (NPV) of $31 million using Exelon’s discount rate. Our Monte Carlo analysis found that 95 percent of the iterations will be above an NPV of -$30 million.
• The Dresden plant has a five-year expected NPV of -$87 million using Exelon’s discount rate. Our Monte Carlo analysis found that 95 percent of the iterations will be above a net present value of -$139 million.

Synapse recommends that Illinois develop a program that offers financial support for the Byron and Dresden plants only when the plants require this support. This program need not extend beyond five years and could be re-evaluated at the end of the five-year period.

On behalf of Energy Outreach Colorado, Synapse submitted testimony regarding the impact of Public Service Company of Colorado's proposal to eliminate inclining block rates (IBR). Synapse's analysis revealed that inclining block rates are more cost-reflective than flat rates, and that eliminating IBR would have disproportionately negative impacts on low-income customers, as these customers tend to have lower usage than average. Further, Synapse's testimony supported empowering customers to better manage their electricity bills by providing customers with cost-reflective rate options. 

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) retained Synapse to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) standards and zero emission vehicle (ZEV) policies in the state of Illinois. We assessed the likely employment and GDP impacts in Illinois for three policy scenarios: (1) adoption of low emission vehicle (LEV) tailpipe standards for criteria pollutants and GHGs, and ZEV regulations; (2) the LEV standards with increased ZEV penetration that achieves Governor Pritzker’s goal of 750,000 ZEVs by 2030; and (3) the LEV standards with further ZEV penetration that achieves 100 percent ZEV sales by 2035. Our analysis found that each of the three policy scenarios is likely to result in small but positive long-term macroeconomic impacts in Illinois and that employment and GDP benefits grow as each policy scenario becomes more aggressive in its assumed number of LEVs and ZEVs in Illinois.

On behalf of the Sierra Club, Synapse is providing expert comments and analysis in the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission’s investigation into the Self Scheduling and Self-Commitment practices of the state’s Coal-fired power plants.

In 2020, Synapse evaluated the unit commitment and dispatch practices of two Minnesota Utility companies: Minnesota Power’s two Boswell units and Otter Tail Power’s Big Stone and Coyote units.

Based on data and information submitted as part of the Companies’ 2020 Annual Compliance Filings, we found that both Otter Tail Power and Minnesota Power uneconomically self-committed and often appeared to have uneconomically self-scheduled their coal units throughout the 2020 reporting periods. Both utilities incurred significant losses (relative to the market price of energy) based on their unit commitment and dispatch decision-making processes. Otter Tail Power’s losses resulting from its commitment and dispatch practices were driven in large part by two factors:

(1) the Company’s decision to enter into a long-term fuel contract for Coyote at the mine that serves the plant (co-located with the mine) that designates a significant portion of its fuel costs as fixed costs; and

(2) the joint ownership structure and dual market operation of both the Big Stone and Coyote plants.

In 2021, Synapse evaluated Otter Tail Power’s units, focusing on the long-term coal contract and joint ownership structure issues outlined above. We evaluated the contract buy-out cost for Otter Tail Power to exit the coal contract at Coyote, and whether ratepayers would be better served by exiting the contract or continuing to operate the unit at a loss. We also reviewed actions the Company has taken to enable economic commitment at Big Stone, its plans to do the same at Coyote, and the challenges posed to attempting to implement fully economic operations based on the joint market and joint ownership at both plants.

The Natural Resources Defense Council retained Synapse to provide technical and policy support for public comments on fossil gas forecasting methodologies in Nevada. With assistance from subcontractor John Rosenkranz, Synapse assessed the filings of NV Energy and Southwest Gas with the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada, and developed recommendations for better accounting of uncertainties, such as the impacts of electrification.

On behalf of Counsel to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, Synapse analyzed and developed evidence regarding Nova Scotia Power’s (NS Power) proposed time-varying rate application. Synapse witness Melissa Whited recommended that the Board approve NS Power's proposed time-of-use and critical peak price tariffs and recommended that other aspects of the proposal be modified or rejected. In particular, Ms. Whited's evidence critiqued NS Power's proposed "Soft Launch" approach as failing to include adequate details regarding customer engagement strategy, as well as providing insufficient planning for evaluation, measurement, and verification. In addition, Ms. Whited found the company's lost revenue adjustment mechanism to be flawed and unnecessary, and certain tariff requirements to be overly restrictive. Finally, Ms. Whited's evidence pointed to the need to better incorporate long-run marginal costs into future tariff modifications.

On behalf of the National Parks Conservation Association (NPCA), Synapse prepared a report and briefed stakeholders and relevant parties on its its findings regarding Dominion's need for the Surry-Skiffes Creek 500 kV Transmission Line that was constructed across the Jamestown River.

In this report, we review Dominion and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ justification for the Surry-Skiffes Creek-Whealton project, evaluate the actual level of need in the NHRLA, and develop a set of alternative portfolios that can meet area need and comply with North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) requirements without the Surry-Skiffes Creek project. We recommend that in the upcoming Environmental Impact Statement, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers should require that Dominion evaluate modular battery storage as a new supply option, and update its load forecast.

On behalf of the Eastern Environmental Law Center (EELC), Synapse and subcontractor John Rosenkranz conducted a comprehensive assessment of National Grid’s Capacity Report released February 24, 2020. National Grid's Capacity Report detailed gas peak demand forecasts through the winter of 2034/35, modeling both High Demand and Low Demand scenarios. The report then assessed various long-term gas solutions to fill these gaps. These potential solutions included various large-scale gas infrastructure projects such as the NESE pipeline and LNG facilities, as well as a “No Infrastructure” option which solely relies on additional demand-side resources.

Our analysis found various errors in National Grid’s assessments of the rate of customer conversion from oil to natural gas for the load forecasts, expected levels and costs of energy efficiency and heat pumps under existing or expanded policies and programs, and gas supply resources. The report concludes that corrections to these errors and appropriate treatment of demand-side measures, with or without small changes in National Grid’s supply planning assumptions, eliminates the need for any of the large-scale infrastructure investments examined in the Capacity Report.

On behalf of Environmental Defense Fund, Synapse conducted a benefit-cost analysis of proposed emissions rules drafted by the New Mexico Environment Department. These proposed rules curb emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the oil and gas industry in New Mexico. The analysis compared implementation costs to four types of benefits to the state of New Mexico: sales from newly captured gas, avoided costs related to human health impacts, avoided nonattainment costs of reduced GHG emissions, and the global societal benefit of reducing methane emissions into the atmosphere. The report presents three different approaches to the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of the proposed rules (e.g., New Mexico BCR, National BCR, and Global BCR) – all of which are cost-effective according to the Synapse analysis.

The 100PercentCT Project developed by People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE) supports the transition to a clean energy economy in Connecticut. The project’s primary function is to conduct energy analyses to help inform individual towns and the State of Connecticut about opportunities to achieve 100 percent renewable energy for the buildings and transportation sectors. PACE developed the Town Energy Analysis model—an in-house, techno-economic tool—to inventory energy use and emissions in Connecticut towns and evaluate strategies to transition to renewable energy.

Synapse performed an in-depth review of PACE’s Town Energy Analysis model to identify opportunities to improve upon and expand the model. We evaluated the modeling methods, sectors, and scope included in the energy analysis, as well as the inputs and data sources used. We compared PACE’s model alongside 10 publicly available energy and climate modeling tools to identify opportunities to align the Town Energy Analysis model with current best practices in energy and greenhouse gas accounting and in identification of mitigation opportunities.

Synapse issued a report to PACE presenting our review of the Town Energy Analysis model. First, our report summarizes the energy and climate modeling tools used to establish current energy and climate planning best practices for analytical models. Next, we validate PACE’s model and identify specific changes to improve key data, inputs, methods, and assumptions used in the model. We conclude by identifying additional modeling approaches, clean energy strategies, market segments, and energy impacts for the possible inclusion within PACE’s Town Energy Analysis model.