Avoided Energy Supply Costs in New England (AESC)

AESC Study Group
Project ongoing

Synapse and a team of subcontractors developed projections of electricity and natural gas costs that would be avoided due to reductions in electricity and natural gas use resulting from improvements in energy efficiency. The 2021 report provides projections of avoided costs of electricity and natural gas by year from 2021 through 2035 with extrapolated values through the mid-2050s. In addition to projecting the costs of energy and capacity avoided directly by program participants, the report provides estimates of the Demand Reduction Induced Price Effect (DRIPE) of efficiency programs on wholesale market prices for electric energy, electric capacity, and natural gas.

The report also provides a projection of avoided costs of fuel oil and other fuels, non-embedded environmental costs associated with emissions of CO2 and NOX, avoided costs of transmission and distribution, and the value of reliability. The 2021 AESC study was sponsored by a group representing all of the major electric and gas utilities in New England as well as efficiency program administrators, energy offices, regulators, and advocates. Synapse conducted prior AESC studies in 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2018.

Visit our AESC 2021 Materials page to download the AESC 2021 report appendices, user interfaces, a slide deck on the study findings, and supplemental studies.

Visit our AESC 2018 Materials page to review the 2018 report and additional materials.

Synapse has also conducted supplemental analysis on the avoided costs of compliance of the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act. Visit here for more details.