Modeling & Quantitative Analysis

Overview

We started in our early days providing good electric sector modeling and modeling review to non-utility clients who lacked access. We still do that; but we've expanded to better answer our clients' questions. Our experts use a combination of models and tools--some built by us--to get at the information our clients need.

Electric System Modeling

Synapse performs operational and planning modeling analyses of electric power systems. Our services include identifying the appropriate set of models to inform clients’ analyses; performing modeling studies and analyzing the results; and reviewing, critiquing, and re-running utilities' and project developers' modeling studies and output files.

• Capacity expansion modeling: We use industry-standard capacity expansion and production cost model EnCompass to evaluate integrated resource plans and quantify the economic and environmental impacts of policy proposals and decarbonization roadmaps. We also review and critique utility modeling performed using Strategist, Market Analytics, PROMOD, and PLEXOS.
• Resource adequacy modeling: We use reliability and resource adequacy model SERVM to evaluate probabilistically the ability of a given resource portfolio to meet demand under various weather, market, and resource performance conditions.
• Coal plant cost modeling: Our Coal Asset Valuation Tool (CAVT) analyzes the forward-going economic viability of individual coal units given current or future environmental regulations by comparing the cost of compliance with electric market revenue forecasts.

Gas System Modeling

Synapse’s gas system financial models allow us to evaluate scenarios for the future of a gas utility from both an investor and customer perspective. We can assess how spending or decarbonization plans impact the revenue requirement and customer bills, and we can diagnose whether an investment might create stranded assets.

Buildings, Transportation, and Industrial Decarbonization Modeling

In addition to modeling future scenarios for electric and gas system decarbonization, we model pathways for building, transportation, and industrial sector decarbonization. Iteratively modeling the interactions between sectors and comparing results requires synchronization; we've developed tools that work together to provide useful results.

• Buildings: Synapse’s Building Decarbonization Calculator (BDC) models the energy consumption of space and water heating systems in residential and commercial buildings on a state-by-state basis. Our extra-precise Energy Model for Building Emissions Requirements (EMBER) designs building performance standards based on the energy and emissions of a jurisdiction’s buildings. Other Synapse tools relate hourly weather data and HVAC performance to create estimates of energy and peak demand impacts associated with heat pumps.
• Transportation: Our Electric Vehicle Regional Emissions and Demand Impacts (EV-REDI) model calculates the demand, fuel consumption, and emissions impacts of various EV adoption trajectories.
• Industry: Synapse’s Technoeconomic Industrial Decarbonization Evaluator (TIDE) evaluates technology pathways to industrial facility decarbonization and their associated costs.

Energy Efficiency and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Modeling

Synapse creates models and conducts benefit-cost analyses focused on distributed energy resources (DER) and energy efficiency programs.

• Models: We developed the Avoided Emissions & Generation Tool (AVERT) for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to calculate hourly displaced emissions resulting from energy efficiency and renewable energy additions at specific locations. Our Energy Savings and Impacts Scenario Tool (ESIST) estimates medium- and long-term impacts related to utility- and state-level energy efficiency programs. Our Electrification Bill Impact Model estimates bill impacts for residential customers who switch from natural gas to electricity.
• Benefit-cost analysis: We build workbooks to analyze the benefits and costs of existing and proposed policies, technology applications, and programs. Typically, these projects relate to ensuring cost-effective use of ratepayer or taxpayer funding. Examples include analysis of community solar programs, electric vehicle incentive programs, expansion of renewable portfolio standards, and specific technologies such as heat pumps and energy storage. In addition, Synapse is a national leader in developing principles and practices for how to conduct BCAs when reviewing utility investments.

Economic, Jobs, and Affordability Impacts Modeling

We can estimate the rate and bill impacts of utility investments and policy changes or proposals. We also analyze job impacts and other macroeconomic impacts alongside other quantitative analysis, using models such as IMPLAN, to provide a more complete picture of various options. Read more about our job impacts analysis expertise.

Emissions Impacts Modeling

Synapse uses various tools to quantify health and environmental impacts of energy-related emissions. Most commonly, we use U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's publicly available CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening and mapping tool. It uses county-level inputs on changes in criteria pollutants to estimate impacts on public health, including morbidity and monetized health effects.

GIS Geospatial Modeling

Synapse also uses GIS tools such as ArcGIS and QGIS to analyze geospatial data. For instance, we have used GIS to inform policy decisions and gather input data through the identification of sites for solar projects and their associated characteristics, extraction of modeled wind speeds based on lease regions, and expression of results through choropleth maps.

Tool Development

Synapse modelers run industry-standard models and publicly available tools when these resources are the best fit for the task. We also develop models in-house for specific applications, either to complement the capabilities of other models or to use exclusively.

• AVERT. Synapse developed this MATLAB and Excel-based model for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to calculate hourly displaced emissions resulting from energy efficiency and renewable energy additions at specific locations.
• BDC. This tool models the energy consumption of space and water heating systems in residential and commercial buildings across the country. BDC can provide the quantitative, state-level projections of future scenarios that jurisdictions need to make informed building decarbonization decisions.
• CAVT. This model analyzes the forward-going economic viability of individual coal units in the face of current and likely future environmental regulations over the next 30 years, by comparing the cost of environmental compliance with forecasts of electricity market prices and revenues. CAVT has been used in several Synapse analyses to examine and identify coal units at risk for retirement.
• Electrification Bill Impact Model. This tool estimates electric and gas bill impacts for residential customers who switch from natural gas to electricity.
• EMBER. This tool models the energy use and emissions performance of individual buildings in a jurisdiction. It uses this facility-level data to design a recommended building performance standard for a jurisdiction.
• ESIST. Synapse developed this Excel-based model for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to estimate medium- and long-term impacts related to utility- and state-level energy efficiency programs.
• EV-REDI. This stock-flow model aids in planning for impacts of transportation electrification. EV-REDI uses state-specific data to project electric vehicle sales and total vehicles on the road, as well as electric system sales impacts, impacts to gasoline consumption, and changes in vehicle emissions.
• TIDE. This model uses thermal data from industrial facilities, segments facilities by end use, fuel type, and temperature range, and evaluates appropriate technology pathways to industrial facility decarbonization and their associated costs.