Dominion Energy Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center CPCN Review
Synapse provided expert support for Sierra Club in Dominion Energy’s application before the Virginia State Corporation Commission for a Certificate of Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) to build the proposed Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center (CERC). Dominion claimed that the facility is needed for load and reliability and is economic relative to alternatives, and it requested a variance from the Virginia Clean Economy Act’s requirement to meet energy efficiency targets before adding new fossil generation.
Synapse evaluated Dominion’s assertions regarding the need for CERC, its cost-effectiveness, and Dominion’s justification for an exemption from energy efficiency requirements. Synapse reviewed Dominion’s economic and reliability analyses and presented results from its own independent modeling. Synapse found that Dominion’s economic assessment was incomplete because it did not evaluate a single optimized portfolio of solar, battery storage, and energy efficiency to replace CERC. Synapse modeled two alternative portfolios that comply with energy efficiency requirements and replace some or all of CERC with additional solar and storage, finding only marginal cost differences relative to Dominion’s portfolio with CERC.
Synapse also found Dominion’s reliability analysis, including Brattle’s work, insufficient because Dominion did not evaluate an alternative optimized portfolio and instead compared a system with CERC to one where CERC was simply removed. Synapse’s own reliability modeling showed that both alternative portfolios provided similar or better performance relative to a system with CERC.
Overall, Synapse’s independent economic and reliability analyses demonstrate that alternative portfolios can match or outperform the CERC project on cost, reliability, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, while reducing exposure to future fuel price volatility. Based on these findings, Synapse recommended that the Commission reject Dominion’s CPCN application and require updated modeling that incorporates increased energy efficiency and evaluates optimized alternative resource portfolios.