Dominion Virginia 2024 Integrated Resource Plan Docket
Synapse supported Sierra Club’s engagement in Dominion Energy Virginia’s 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) docket before the Virginia State Corporation Commission. We conducted capacity expansion and production cost modeling of Dominion’s electric system, focusing on the cost of meeting the utility’s projected surge in data center load while complying with the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA).
Dominion’s 2024 IRP outlines the utility’s strategy to address significant data center-driven load growth anticipated over the coming decades. This growth, along with the need to meet the VCEA’s clean energy requirements, are the key drivers of Dominion’s proposed resource mix.
Dominion modeled four base scenarios that all incorporate data center growth, two sensitivities with relaxed build limits, and supplemental scenarios without data center load. Compared to scenarios without data center growth, the added load increases the portfolio’s net present value revenue requirement (NPVRR) by $22.1 billion, delays all previously planned retirements, and drives the addition of 3.4 GW of new gas capacity, 1.3 GW of small modular reactor (SMR) capacity, 1.8 GW of battery energy storage systems (BESS), and 3.4 GW of offshore wind. Notably, in both scenarios—with and without data center load—Dominion’s model builds 12.2 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), highlighting solar as the least-cost energy resource regardless of demand level.
Synapse modeled two of Dominion’s base scenarios (with and without data center load) and a Synapse Alternative Scenario that meets the projected data center demand through higher levels of energy efficiency (EE), renewable generation, and long-duration energy storage (LDES). In this alternative scenario, Synapse found that increasing access to renewable energy reduces ratepayer costs by approximately $1 billion over the next 15 years, cuts carbon emissions, enables additional storage deployment, and avoids the need for SMRs.
We recommended that the Commission require Dominion to revise its 2024 IRP and update its modeling by:
- Lifting or easing the build limits on solar PV and battery storage.
- Modeling increased EE investment consistent with statutory requirements.
- Including LDES as a resource option.
Synapse also recommended that the Commission direct Dominion to develop alternative tariff structures for data center customers that address risk and promote increased renewable deployment. Dominion should require data center customers to commit to these tariffs as a precondition for modeling near-term load (within the next five years), and should assess the revenue requirement and bill impacts of the added load under these alternative structures. Additionally, Dominion should conduct a study to clearly identify the incremental gas infrastructure needs and determine how much of the projected $22.4 billion in transmission costs are attributable to data center growth.