Financial Audit of Exelon's Illinois Nuclear Power Plants
The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency hired Synapse to assess the financial condition of Exelon's Illinois nuclear fleet following the announcement by Exelon that it intends to shutdown the Byron and Dresden nuclear stations starting in September 2021. The information from this financial audit will help inform legislative action regarding how the state should respond to the announced closure timeline.
For this project, Synapse incorporated a Monte Carlo simulation that encompassed distribution and probabilities of revenues and costs for the Byron, Dresden, Braidwood, and LaSalle plants over the next five and 10 years.
Through this analysis, Synapse found the following:
- The Byron plant has a five-year expected net present value (NPV) of $31 million using Exelon’s discount rate. Our Monte Carlo analysis found that 95 percent of the iterations will be above an NPV of -$30 million.
- The Dresden plant has a five-year expected NPV of -$87 million using Exelon’s discount rate. Our Monte Carlo analysis found that 95 percent of the iterations will be above a net present value of -$139 million.
Synapse recommends that Illinois develop a program that offers financial support for the Byron and Dresden plants only when the plants require this support. This program need not extend beyond five years and could be re-evaluated at the end of the five-year period.