Modeling Electricity Demand by State

Forecasts of electricity demand are essential for analyses of utility regulation and planning. Yet the forecasts used by utilities are typically purchased at substantial cost from specialized vendors and are declared to be confidential business information. There is a need for independent, non-confidential forecasts of load growth that can be used and discussed in analyzing utility issues at relatively low cost. Synapse developed forecasts of electricity consumption by state for each major customer class (residential, commercial, and industrial), drawing on the extensive availability of state-level economic, climate, and energy data. Specifically, we performed ordinary least squares (OLS) analyses of data, leading to a usable, easily applied forecasting framework. We also identified areas where additional development would be likely to lead to improved or more reliable methods. Project completed October 2013.