Technical Support for NESCAUM’s Building Electrification Initiative
On behalf of the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Synapse conducted research and analysis to support the assessment of residential and commercial building electrification across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Synapse’s work included analysis of refrigerant-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial heat pump adoption, as well as research on commercial building types, heating equipment, electrification technologies, modeling strategies, and barriers to commercial building electrification.
Residential Refrigerant Emissions Analysis
Synapse analyzed the GHG emissions impacts of refrigerant leakage associated with residential building electrification across the 13 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic jurisdictions that comprise the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC). The analysis examined refrigerant types, charge sizes, and leakage rates and quantified how refrigerant emissions affect the net climate benefits of space heating, water heating, and whole-home electrification under current and future refrigerant and electric grid conditions. Synapse found that, on average across the OTC region, refrigerant leakage modestly reduces the GHG benefits of whole-home electrification, by approximately 3.3 percent under current conditions and 0.6 percent under future conditions with lower-global-warming-potential (GWP) refrigerants and a cleaner electric grid, while electrification continues to deliver substantial net GHG reductions. The study highlights the importance of transitioning to low- and ultra-low-GWP refrigerants and improving refrigerant management practices to maximize the long-term climate benefits of building electrification.
Commercial Building Electrification Analysis (Forthcoming)
For the commercial sector, Synapse analyzed the regional commercial building stock and heating equipment, evaluated commercial heat pump technologies and their applicability, and recommended specific ComStock electrification measures and packages for NESCAUM’s emissions analysis. Synapse also examined technological, economic, market, building-specific, and infrastructure barriers to commercial building electrification and conducted a supplemental analysis of GHG emissions from refrigerant leakage. Synapse’s refrigerant analysis found that refrigerant-related GHG impacts vary across technology scenarios but remain relatively small compared with the overall emissions benefits of electrification, particularly as lower-GWP refrigerants become more widely used. This work is supporting a forthcoming NESCAUM report on the emissions reduction potential of commercial building electrification.