Capacity expansion and production cost modeling
Capacity expansion and production cost modeling are types of power sector modeling that simulate power plant development and retirement (capacity expansion) as well as dispatch (production cost) at the utility, state, or regional level. Synapse licenses the EnCompass model from Yes Energy to perform capacity expansion and production cost modeling. We have licensed or reviewed many similar models (including ReEDS, Strategist, Market Analytics, PROMOD, and PLEXOS) in our decades of experience.
These types of models use inputs (e.g., demand, resource costs, and regulatory requirements) to estimate hourly impacts on the electricity system, including changes in generation, emissions, and capacity. The model provides unit-specific, detailed forecasts of the composition, operations, and costs for all generating units in a selected region. Outputs from these models include costs; resource builds and electric generation; energy, capacity, and renewable energy credit prices; and emissions.
We use capacity expansion and production cost modeling to:
- Evaluate integrated resource plans
- Quantify the economic and environmental impacts of policy proposals and decarbonization roadmaps
- Create resource portfolios with varying levels of renewable energy deployment to then compare using resource adequacy and reliability modeling
- Review and critique utility capacity expansion modeling performed using EnCompass or other models
Synapse conducts numerous projects using this type of modeling every year. A few recent examples include:
- Quantifying the benefits of resolving PJM’s interconnection queue constraints
- Evaluating electric bill impacts of two of Pennsylvania’s proposed clean energy policies
- Projecting Avoided Energy Supply Costs (AESC) from energy efficiency in New England
- Evaluating the economic performance of Dominion Virginia coal plants for rate case and fuel docket testimony
Read about Synapse’s Modeling and Quantitative Analysis services and reach out to work with us.